Posted by Centrebet is predicting a 56% chance of a federal election by 30 June 2012.
It is also predicting that the Labor party has about the same chance of winning the election as Rob Oakeshott has of holding the seat of Lyne.
Before getting too excited, Centrebet was predicting that Windsor, Oakeshott and Katter would support a Liberal-National government this time last year.
ricardian ambivalence 
It appears the ‘Thomson affair’ will not bring them down according to this gentleman.
They have been a prety good Government. the GFC didn’t impact here and a very quick fiscal consolidation.