How bad is the CnV19 recession going to be? March NFP was -0.5% (37th worst since 1940), and April is likely to be the worst ever (-10%). Real time measures suggest this is 5x worse than the GFC.
Another quarter of weak consumption and a decline of the ABS measure of job vacancies challenges the RBA’s conclusion that there’s no wealth effect form housing & their reliance on the lagging ABS measure of labour demand.
In this post I look at the federal election results in Qld. I first look at the two-party-preferred swing, and then at the swing in the Labor primary vote. The closer a seat is to a coal mine (particularly Adani) the lower the ALP primary vote and the larger the 2pp swing to the LNP.
The RBA cut 25bps to 1% on 2 July, delivering a rare back-to-back easing. They didn’t, however, drop the sort of hint that would suggest another cut in August.
In this post i look at the relationship between the two party preferred swing to the LNP at the last election, and find that the location of mines may explain the strength of the swing. I speculate that shyness about views on mining and climate change may account for the fact that the polls didn’t detect the mood.
I don’t think the RBA will cut their cash rate in July. It would be odd and out of character for a Governor and a Board that has emphasised that importance of the Bank being ‘a source of stability and confidence’ over the past few years.
Taxes have been growing more quickly than income — so the tax share of the average person’s income has gone up sharply. In this post I lay out the facts about the income tax debate. It’s most about returning bracket creep, and stabilising the tax share of GDP.