From expansion back to recovery?
COVID lockdowns have over-taken the RBA’s recent upgrade of the current assessment from ‘recovery’ to ‘expansion’. A contraction in Q3 would extend the life of QE and boost the peak-size of the RBA’s balance sheet.
Tag: RBA
Don’t give up on a May RBA cut
The decline of the unemployment rate to 4.9% in February caused the market to substantially reduce the implied probability of
Aussie GDP boom revised away
The annual revisions to GDP, and a weak 0.3%qoq in Q3 , mean that the GDP boom of H1’18 has
RBA sets up for a cut …
The RBA has set things up to resume the easing cycle that began in 2011 (I never believed in the whole ‘neutral’
McCrann riffs on Yellen
The Sun’s Terry McCrann has published a great column on the nomination of Yellen and what it might mean for
Trimming is better (CPI edition)
There was some confusion about core CPI yesterday, thanks to the divergence between trimmed mean CPI & weighted median CPI
Q2 CPI: low enough for an August cut
The Q2 CPI result came in around where i was expecting, with headline CPI a little higher (it was 0.4%q/q
CPI playbook
Today we have Australian Q2 CPI. My best guess is that Q2 headline CPI will be around 0.25%qoq, which will
About that domestic recession …
Following last week’s Q1 National Accounts, I cheekily suggested that the domestic economy was in recession. Many of my peers
capex carefully
Last week’s capex report was both keenly anticipated and the source of much confusion. It was keenly anticipated, as it’s
Why Cyprus matters for the RBA
After a period of calm, Eurogeddon is back. The current form is a Cyprus headache. While it is a surprise
March RBA — slightly less dovish
The March RBA statement contained only a few tweaks, and in many ways it was notable for what the RBA
