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Tag Archives: RBA
Don’t give up on a May RBA cut
The decline of the unemployment rate to 4.9% in February caused the market to substantially reduce the implied probability of a rate cut in May. This is understandable, but i think it’s wrong. What’s wrong with this is that the … Continue reading
Aussie GDP boom revised away
The annual revisions to GDP, and a weak 0.3%qoq in Q3 , mean that the GDP boom of H1’18 has been revised away. The chart below shows what we thought was true (the red line) v. the new information (black … Continue reading
RBA sets up for a cut …
The RBA has set things up to resume the easing cycle that began in 2011 (I never believed in the whole ‘neutral’ thing … see here). My current view is that the RBA will cut by 50bps in 2015, taking their policy rate … Continue reading
McCrann riffs on Yellen
The Sun’s Terry McCrann has published a great column on the nomination of Yellen and what it might mean for the AUD. The AUD bottomed in early August at ~89c, and has rallied back to ~94c due to the fed’s … Continue reading
Trimming is better (CPI edition)
There was some confusion about core CPI yesterday, thanks to the divergence between trimmed mean CPI & weighted median CPI . This is not surprising as they are fairly esoteric concepts. The bottom line is that the trimmed mean is … Continue reading
Q2 CPI: low enough for an August cut
The Q2 CPI result came in around where i was expecting, with headline CPI a little higher (it was 0.4%q/q v. my 0.25%q/q) and trimmed mean CPI at my (and the median economist’s) forecast of 0.5%q/q. There was something of … Continue reading
CPI playbook
Today we have Australian Q2 CPI. My best guess is that Q2 headline CPI will be around 0.25%qoq, which will take headline inflation down to 2.25%yoy (which is below 2%yoy once the carbon tax is taken out). The key core … Continue reading
About that domestic recession …
Following last week’s Q1 National Accounts, I cheekily suggested that the domestic economy was in recession. Many of my peers also made the same observation — with more or less degrees of seriousness. Along this line, some focused on Western … Continue reading
capex carefully
Last week’s capex report was both keenly anticipated and the source of much confusion. It was keenly anticipated, as it’s broadly understood that Australia’s investment bulge will pass (at some point). It was the source of much confusion, as there … Continue reading
Why Cyprus matters for the RBA
After a period of calm, Eurogeddon is back. The current form is a Cyprus headache. While it is a surprise to close watchers it has rattled markets. The reason seems to be the risk of deposit flight from weak to … Continue reading
