Tag Archives: RBA

RBA sets up for a cut …

The RBA has set things up to resume the easing cycle that began in 2011 (I never believed in the whole ‘neutral’ thing … see here).  My current view is that the RBA will cut by 50bps in 2015, taking their policy rate … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , | 56 Comments

McCrann riffs on Yellen

The Sun’s Terry McCrann has published a great column on the nomination of Yellen and what it might mean for the AUD. The AUD bottomed in early August at ~89c, and has rallied back to ~94c due to the fed’s … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, FOMC, monetary policy, RBA, USD | Tagged , , | 23 Comments

Trimming is better (CPI edition)

There was some confusion about core CPI yesterday, thanks to the divergence between trimmed mean CPI & weighted median CPI . This is not surprising as they are fairly esoteric concepts. The bottom line is that the trimmed mean is … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy | Tagged , , | 15 Comments

Q2 CPI: low enough for an August cut

The Q2 CPI result came in around where i was expecting, with headline CPI a little higher (it was 0.4%q/q v. my 0.25%q/q) and trimmed mean CPI at my (and the median economist’s) forecast of 0.5%q/q.  There was something of … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , | 2 Comments

CPI playbook

Today we have Australian Q2 CPI. My best guess is that Q2 headline CPI will be around 0.25%qoq, which will take headline inflation down to 2.25%yoy (which is below 2%yoy once the carbon tax is taken out). The key core … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , | 11 Comments

About that domestic recession …

Following last week’s Q1 National Accounts, I cheekily suggested that the domestic economy was in recession.  Many of my peers also made the same observation — with more or less degrees of seriousness. Along this line, some focused on Western … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , , | 25 Comments

capex carefully

Last week’s capex report was both keenly anticipated and the source of much confusion. It was keenly anticipated, as it’s broadly understood that Australia’s investment bulge will pass (at some point). It was the source of much confusion, as there … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , | 12 Comments

Why Cyprus matters for the RBA

After a period of calm, Eurogeddon is back. The current form is a Cyprus headache. While it is a surprise to close watchers it has rattled markets. The reason seems to be the risk of deposit flight from weak to … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, EUR, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , | 26 Comments

March RBA — slightly less dovish

The March RBA statement contained only a few tweaks, and in many ways it was notable for what the RBA did not do. What they did do was leave the clear easing bias in place, and in particular the final … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged | 18 Comments

March RBA – watch the tone

The March RBA meeting has the feel of a ‘dead rubber’, with only 3.5bps of easing priced (a 14% chance) and a sense that there needs to be a big shift in either direction for the RBA to move from … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, monetary policy, RBA, Uncategorized | Tagged | 23 Comments