NZ dodges Delta = RBNZ on track for 6’Oct hike
The weekly 6-day jobs series is now available up to the week ending 29-August. It suggests little damage from Delta, clearing the path for an RBNZ hike on 6 Oct.
Category: Data
Q2 GDP: a bit better than it looked
Q2 GDP was +0.7%qoq and 9.6%yoy, to be pretty much bang-on the RBA’s forecast of 9.5%yoy. I said this morning
Q2 GDP: Better than it’ll look
Q2’21 GDP is going to be weak: say +0.25%qoq. More likely 0%qoq than 0.5%qoq. My tracking estimate of the GDP-expenditure
The Q3 Retail crash
July retail sales report sets up Q3’21 as the worst ever quarter. It raises fresh questions about on the RBA’s Aug SOMP forecasts. And reminds us what is different about the Q3’21 lockdowns.
Q2 GDP tracking update: ~40bps sub RBA
Q2 GDP is tracking 40bps below the RBA’s August SOMP forecast. Weekly payrolls suggest job losses in NSW are similar to the first COVID lockdowns.
ricardian ambivalence 