The weekly 6-day jobs series is now available up to the week ending 29-August. It suggests little damage from Delta, clearing the path for an RBNZ hike on 6 Oct.
Q2 GDP was +0.7%qoq and 9.6%yoy, to be pretty much bang-on the RBA’s forecast of 9.5%yoy. I said this morning
Q2’21 GDP is going to be weak: say +0.25%qoq. More likely 0%qoq than 0.5%qoq. My tracking estimate of the GDP-expenditure
July retail sales report sets up Q3’21 as the worst ever quarter. It raises fresh questions about on the RBA’s Aug SOMP forecasts. And reminds us what is different about the Q3’21 lockdowns.
Q2 GDP is tracking 40bps below the RBA’s August SOMP forecast. Weekly payrolls suggest job losses in NSW are similar to the first COVID lockdowns.