Category Archives: RBA
[is this thing still on?] It’s been a long time since I blogged, but today’s RBA statement has lit a modest fire … Before I riff on what’s wrong with the Bank, let me put down some context. The Bank’s … Continue reading
The RBA has set things up to resume the easing cycle that began in 2011 (I never believed in the whole ‘neutral’ thing … see here). My current view is that the RBA will cut by 50bps in 2015, taking their policy rate … Continue reading
The 0.8%q/q GDP print looked pretty good at the headline level, and the 2.75%y/y (v. RBA at 2.5%y/y) looked even better – but when you dig a little deeper that is where the good news ends. Over the last two … Continue reading
The Jan 2014 labour market report was BAD. The unemployment rate rose to 6% — exceeding the GFC peak — as the ranks of unemployed women rose (female employment had been relatively stable).
Finding what you expect is a common failing of human beings — however I doubt it is wishful thinking that’s got me finding confirmation of my expectations in the RBA’s Q1’14 SOMP. As ever, the place to start with is … Continue reading
A funny thing happened yesterday. It was not the RBA dropping their easing bias — which was fairly obvious given the Q4’13 inflation surprise — but the way the market traded on the news. To see why this was odd, … Continue reading
There are some interesting stories in the October employment data. The macro news isn’t great, but the good(ish) news is that the unemployment rate remained basically steady at 5.7% (in unrounded terms is was +0.1).
These three charts summarise the state of the labour market — and the September employment report. The good news is that the trend in hours worked is firm — in typical cycles hours pick up first, then job ads, and … Continue reading
The Sun’s Terry McCrann has published a great column on the nomination of Yellen and what it might mean for the AUD. The AUD bottomed in early August at ~89c, and has rallied back to ~94c due to the fed’s … Continue reading