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Category Archives: RBA
Das Lowe-flation
RBA Gov Lowe gave the ABE Dinner speech this year — a speech entitled ‘Some Evolving Questions’. The speech looks at the transition away from the mining investment peak , the broken link between jobs, wages and inflation, and the risks … Continue reading
Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized
7 Comments
Slowest-ever wages
At first glance, the Q3’17 WPI print was a stable at 0.5%q/q (2.0%y/y) — however once you look at the details it is the lowest ever print for WPI. The QoQ non-seasonally adjusted print was 0.8%q/q, reflecting the fact that … Continue reading
Posted in AUD, monetary policy, RBA
9 Comments
No means no! (RBA edition)
Say you were the Governor of an inflation targeting central bank and wanted to communicate to the world that you were not about to raise rates — what would you do? How about forecast that inflation remains outside of your control … Continue reading
Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized
7 Comments
Are cuts back on the table?
RBA watcher James Glynn pushed the Aussie dollar and bond yields down on Friday with the explosive story RBA not ruling out rate cut. This impacted the market as hikes are priced for 2018 and consensus has it that Gov … Continue reading
Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized
5 Comments
RBA goes the full pom-pom
[is this thing still on?] It’s been a long time since I blogged, but today’s RBA statement has lit a modest fire … Before I riff on what’s wrong with the Bank, let me put down some context. The Bank’s … Continue reading
Posted in AUD, RBA
6 Comments
RBA sets up for a cut …
The RBA has set things up to resume the easing cycle that began in 2011 (I never believed in the whole ‘neutral’ thing … see here). My current view is that the RBA will cut by 50bps in 2015, taking their policy rate … Continue reading
GD-what?
The 0.8%q/q GDP print looked pretty good at the headline level, and the 2.75%y/y (v. RBA at 2.5%y/y) looked even better – but when you dig a little deeper that is where the good news ends. Over the last two … Continue reading
Aussie labour market plumbs new lows (Jan’14 report)
The Jan 2014 labour market report was BAD. The unemployment rate rose to 6% — exceeding the GFC peak — as the ranks of unemployed women rose (female employment had been relatively stable).
not so hawkish (Q1’14 RBA SOMP)
Finding what you expect is a common failing of human beings — however I doubt it is wishful thinking that’s got me finding confirmation of my expectations in the RBA’s Q1’14 SOMP. As ever, the place to start with is … Continue reading
Is the RBA really neutral?
A funny thing happened yesterday. It was not the RBA dropping their easing bias — which was fairly obvious given the Q4’13 inflation surprise — but the way the market traded on the news. To see why this was odd, … Continue reading
