Category Archives: RBA

The RBA’s neutral bias

Posted on February 17, 2019 by

The RBA went back to an explicitly neutral bias at their Feb’19 policy window — via an interesting bit of subtlety. The central forecast remains for a gradual decline of the unemployment rate and a very modest acceleration of core … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | 10 Comments

Another perspective on Aussie Jobs

Posted on October 19, 2018 by

The ABS handed us another puzzle yesterday — the September jobs report told us that employment growth wasn’t keeping up with population growth (you need about 15k jobs per month to keep up) but that the unemployment rate fell to … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, RBA | Leave a comment

The problem with Aussie Housing

Posted on October 12, 2018 by

The RBA just released their semi-annual Financial Stability Review (FSR).  Predictability, the FSR plays down the risks from the maturity of Interest Only (IO) loans — however I think they are over-confident.  Let me explain.  In the five years prior … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, economics, Housing, RBA, Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Here comes the housing downturn?

Posted on October 9, 2018 by

It’s been ages since I blogged here — partly because the issues facing the Australian Economy haven’t changed much over the past year or so.   Inflation is stuck at a pace that is too low (at least relative to the … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, Housing, monetary policy, RBA | 9 Comments

Das Lowe-flation

Posted on November 22, 2017 by

RBA Gov Lowe gave the ABE Dinner speech this year — a speech entitled ‘Some Evolving Questions’.  The speech looks at the transition away from the mining investment peak , the broken link between jobs, wages and inflation, and the risks … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 8 Comments

Slowest-ever wages

Posted on November 19, 2017 by

At first glance, the Q3’17 WPI print was a stable at 0.5%q/q (2.0%y/y) — however once you look at the details it is the lowest ever print for WPI.  The  QoQ non-seasonally adjusted print was 0.8%q/q, reflecting the fact that … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, monetary policy, RBA | 10 Comments

No means no! (RBA edition)

Posted on November 10, 2017 by

Say you were the Governor of an inflation targeting central bank and wanted to communicate to the world that you were not about to raise rates — what would you do? How about forecast that inflation remains outside of your control … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 7 Comments

Are cuts back on the table?

Posted on October 7, 2017 by

RBA watcher James Glynn pushed the Aussie dollar and bond yields down on Friday with the explosive story RBA not ruling out rate cut.  This impacted the market as hikes are priced for 2018 and consensus has it that Gov … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 6 Comments

RBA goes the full pom-pom

Posted on June 7, 2017 by

[is this thing still on?] It’s been a long time since I blogged, but today’s RBA statement has lit a modest fire … Before I riff on what’s wrong with the Bank, let me put down some context. The Bank’s … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, RBA | 6 Comments

RBA sets up for a cut …

Posted on December 4, 2014 by

The RBA has set things up to resume the easing cycle that began in 2011 (I never believed in the whole ‘neutral’ thing … see here).  My current view is that the RBA will cut by 50bps in 2015, taking their policy rate … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , | 56 Comments