Category Archives: monetary policy
RBA sets up for a cut …
The RBA has set things up to resume the easing cycle that began in 2011 (I never believed in the whole ‘neutral’ thing … see here). My current view is that the RBA will cut by 50bps in 2015, taking their policy rate … Continue reading
GD-what?
The 0.8%q/q GDP print looked pretty good at the headline level, and the 2.75%y/y (v. RBA at 2.5%y/y) looked even better – but when you dig a little deeper that is where the good news ends. Over the last two … Continue reading
not so hawkish (Q1’14 RBA SOMP)
Finding what you expect is a common failing of human beings — however I doubt it is wishful thinking that’s got me finding confirmation of my expectations in the RBA’s Q1’14 SOMP. As ever, the place to start with is … Continue reading
Is the RBA really neutral?
A funny thing happened yesterday. It was not the RBA dropping their easing bias — which was fairly obvious given the Q4’13 inflation surprise — but the way the market traded on the news. To see why this was odd, … Continue reading
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (Sep jobs edition)
These three charts summarise the state of the labour market — and the September employment report. The good news is that the trend in hours worked is firm — in typical cycles hours pick up first, then job ads, and … Continue reading
McCrann riffs on Yellen
The Sun’s Terry McCrann has published a great column on the nomination of Yellen and what it might mean for the AUD. The AUD bottomed in early August at ~89c, and has rallied back to ~94c due to the fed’s … Continue reading
troublesome t-bills
Last night’s four week US T-bill auction result was a little odd. The auction of US$30bn of four week paper was well enough covered (~83bn of bids v. ~30bn of paper), however the results reveal a fairly large change of sentiment. … Continue reading
Shutdown crashes US confidence
According to Gallop’s daily survey, US economic confidence has crashed as a result of the government shutdown. The FOMC decision not to taper is looking like a good one.
RBA sees policy gaining traction
The October RBA Statement had only a few changes from their September statement. Overall, my assessment is that there is one big change, and that is to the financial conditions paragraph. The addition of a line that savers are taking … Continue reading
Yawning PCE gaps lead to low inflation
The monthly US PCE report is one of my favourite. US consumption is not just a bit part of the US economy, but a big part of the engine that has driven global growth these past few decades. The August … Continue reading
