RBA ‘thesis snaps
Another quarter of weak consumption and a decline of the ABS measure of job vacancies challenges the RBA’s conclusion that there’s no wealth effect form housing & their reliance on the lagging ABS measure of labour demand.
Category: monetary policy
RBA: Double-cut … no pike
The RBA cut 25bps to 1% on 2 July, delivering a rare back-to-back easing. They didn’t, however, drop the sort of hint that would suggest another cut in August.
I’m cold on a July RBA rate cut
I don’t think the RBA will cut their cash rate in July. It would be odd and out of character for a Governor and a Board that has emphasised that importance of the Bank being ‘a source of stability and confidence’ over the past few years.
Fed set for -100bps — starting with -50 in July
The Fed spiked the market with dovishness this morning. Taking the market implied rate for the end-19 fed funds rate
What’s right and wrong with Terry McCrann’s Wynx article
Terry McCrann (again) spiked the markets on Wednesday with an explosive article that warned that the RBA could cut 50bps
Clarida: King of the Doves?
Vice Fed Chair Clarida gave a very interesting speech entitled Sustaining Maximum Employment and Price Stability on 30 May. It
Fed staff lose hope on inflation
Hidden inside the minutes to the Fed’s 30 April meeting is an alarming paragraph that suggests Fed staff have grave
Lowe locks June … looks awkward
RBA Gov Lowe delivered a speech that was widely interpreted as locking in a 25bps rate cut in June. The
RBA’s labour market (cut) test is met
The April employment report revealed a slackening of the labour market — and is probably enough to get a 25bps
There goes the employment bull-case
I must admit to being a bit stunned by the RBA’s May SOMP. There were a number of elements that
RBA holds; bring on Lowe-flation
Against my expectations, the RBA left their policy rate at 1.5% today. My main lesson from all this is that
Financial Stability and Mortgage dynamics
My argument for a May rate cut by the RBA basically boils down to the observation that inflation is very
