Another quarter of weak consumption and a decline of the ABS measure of job vacancies challenges the RBA’s conclusion that there’s no wealth effect form housing & their reliance on the lagging ABS measure of labour demand.
The RBA cut 25bps to 1% on 2 July, delivering a rare back-to-back easing. They didn’t, however, drop the sort of hint that would suggest another cut in August.
I don’t think the RBA will cut their cash rate in July. It would be odd and out of character for a Governor and a Board that has emphasised that importance of the Bank being ‘a source of stability and confidence’ over the past few years.
The Fed spiked the market with dovishness this morning. Taking the market implied rate for the end-19 fed funds rate
Terry McCrann (again) spiked the markets on Wednesday with an explosive article that warned that the RBA could cut 50bps
Vice Fed Chair Clarida gave a very interesting speech entitled Sustaining Maximum Employment and Price Stability on 30 May. It
Hidden inside the minutes to the Fed’s 30 April meeting is an alarming paragraph that suggests Fed staff have grave