Category Archives: FOMC

McCrann riffs on Yellen

The Sun’s Terry McCrann has published a great column on the nomination of Yellen and what it might mean for the AUD. The AUD bottomed in early August at ~89c, and has rallied back to ~94c due to the fed’s … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, FOMC, monetary policy, RBA, USD | Tagged , , | 23 Comments

Yawning PCE gaps lead to low inflation

The monthly US PCE report is one of my favourite.  US consumption is not just a bit part of the US economy, but a big part of the engine that has driven global growth these past few decades. The August … Continue reading

Posted in economics, FOMC, monetary policy | Tagged | 13 Comments

Taper-off … Taylor Broken

The Federal Reserve’s decision NOT to announce a slowing of the pace of their asset purchases at their September meeting caught the market by surprise. Even with Bernanke’s prior guidance that “asset purchases are not on auto-pilot”, and that the … Continue reading

Posted in economics, FOMC, monetary policy, USD | Tagged , | 16 Comments

Can you taper with that?

I have been of the view that the Fed would announce a tapering of their Treasury purchases at the upcoming (September 18) policy window.  I still hold that view — but with much less conviction.  The fact is that the … Continue reading

Posted in economics, FOMC, monetary policy, USD | Tagged , | 23 Comments

enough (PCE) inflation to taper?

We’re now on the run into the September FOMC meeting. The key report will be this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report — as the labour market is the best leading indicator of inflation — however there’s already been a few awkward … Continue reading

Posted in economics, FOMC, monetary policy, USD | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

FED can still sep-taper

Last night’s price action spoke to the virtues of sleeping deeply and turning off your phone. First, better than expected data drove yields higher (US 10yrs tipped 2.7%) and then the Fed downgraded their growth assessment and sounded more worried … Continue reading

Posted in Bond Market, FOMC, monetary policy, USD | Tagged , , | 9 Comments

Ezra Klein tips Summers

The typically well informed (especially on things Democratic) Ezra Klein reports that Summers is now the leading contender to replace Bernanke. Here are his five reasons why — 1) President Obama really likes Summers. And he’s surrounded by Summers’s longtime … Continue reading

Posted in FOMC, monetary policy, US politics, USD | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

QE-outlook dims as Summers brightens

The QE outlook has started to dim, as Lawrence Summers firms as favourite to replace Bernanke next year.  This seems to be a bearish bonds / bullish USD development. Yesterday, Hilsenrath published an article in the Journal suggesting that Summers … Continue reading

Posted in Bond Market, FOMC, monetary policy, US politics, USD | Tagged , , | 10 Comments

How QE works …

The BIS has just published a paper which traces the main path through which QE works to stimulate the economy.  It shows how the size and average maturity of government debt in private hands influences long-term yields, and how the … Continue reading

Posted in economics, FOMC, monetary policy | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Buy Eurodollars for Ben (taper off)

The WSJ’s inimitable Jon Hilsenrath has just published a note that emphasises that the market reaction to Bernanke’s tapering comments is inconsistent with how the Fed thinks the economy is likely to evolve. Federal Reserve officials have been trying to convince … Continue reading

Posted in FOMC, monetary policy, USD | Tagged , , | 10 Comments