Category Archives: Uncategorized

Aussie GDP boom revised away

The annual revisions to GDP, and a weak 0.3%qoq in Q3 , mean that the GDP boom of H1’18 has been revised away.  The chart below shows what we thought was true (the red line) v. the new information (black … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

The problem with Aussie Housing

The RBA just released their semi-annual Financial Stability Review (FSR).  Predictability, the FSR plays down the risks from the maturity of Interest Only (IO) loans — however I think they are over-confident.  Let me explain.  In the five years prior … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, Housing, RBA, Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Das Lowe-flation

RBA Gov Lowe gave the ABE Dinner speech this year — a speech entitled ‘Some Evolving Questions’.  The speech looks at the transition away from the mining investment peak , the broken link between jobs, wages and inflation, and the risks … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 8 Comments

No means no! (RBA edition)

Say you were the Governor of an inflation targeting central bank and wanted to communicate to the world that you were not about to raise rates — what would you do? How about forecast that inflation remains outside of your control … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 7 Comments

RBA is wrong on inflation (again)

Q3 CPI has printed, but it is the same old story — the RBA is wrong on inflation.   They are in good company.  Pretty much every central bank has chronically over-estimated inflation over the past few years.  If it were … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Are cuts back on the table?

RBA watcher James Glynn pushed the Aussie dollar and bond yields down on Friday with the explosive story RBA not ruling out rate cut.  This impacted the market as hikes are priced for 2018 and consensus has it that Gov … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 6 Comments

2013 in review

The stats helper monkeys prepared a 2013 annual report for this blog. Here’s an excerpt: The concert hall at the Sydney Opera House holds 2,700 people. This blog was viewed about 58,000 times in 2013. If it were a … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Unrepresentative Swill

Like most Australians, I have in recent times voted above the line in the senate — after all the ballots don’t even fit in the booths anymore. From time to time I even shopped the vote about a little – … Continue reading

Posted in Australian Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 18 Comments

blog holiday

I am taking a blog-holiday … I don’t expect to post much over the next few weeks. Should be back to normal service mid July.

Posted in Uncategorized | 9 Comments

April jobs? … best in a while

The April employment report has led the the predictable ‘we was robbed’ response from many of those who got the May meeting wrong. I got the April RBA meeting wrong too, but you won’t read that assessment below. Rather, i … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, Uncategorized | Tagged | 17 Comments