How bad is the CnV19 recession going to be?
How bad is the CnV19 recession going to be? March NFP was -0.5% (37th worst since 1940), and April is likely to be the worst ever (-10%). Real time measures suggest this is 5x worse than the GFC.
macro, politics, markets, ambivalence
How bad is the CnV19 recession going to be? March NFP was -0.5% (37th worst since 1940), and April is likely to be the worst ever (-10%). Real time measures suggest this is 5x worse than the GFC.
The Fed spiked the market with dovishness this morning. Taking the market implied rate for the end-19 fed funds rate
Terry McCrann (again) spiked the markets on Wednesday with an explosive article that warned that the RBA could cut 50bps
Vice Fed Chair Clarida gave a very interesting speech entitled Sustaining Maximum Employment and Price Stability on 30 May. It
My argument for a May rate cut by the RBA basically boils down to the observation that inflation is very
The slow pace of inflation in Q1 makes a very strong case for a 25 bps reduction of the RBA’s
The decline of the unemployment rate to 4.9% in February caused the market to substantially reduce the implied probability of
The Sumner stuff on per-capita measures of nominal income growth made me wonder if it made more sense to think
The annual revisions to GDP, and a weak 0.3%qoq in Q3 , mean that the GDP boom of H1’18 has
The RBA just released their semi-annual Financial Stability Review (FSR). Predictability, the FSR plays down the risks from the maturity
RBA Gov Lowe gave the ABE Dinner speech this year — a speech entitled ‘Some Evolving Questions’. The speech looks at
Say you were the Governor of an inflation targeting central bank and wanted to communicate to the world that you