The minutes to the RBA’s August meeting confirm that the Board did discuss reversing July’s decision to taper bond purchases
The economy was already shedding jobs in early July. The outlook is for more weakness.
COVID lockdowns have over-taken the RBA’s recent upgrade of the current assessment from ‘recovery’ to ‘expansion’. A contraction in Q3 would extend the life of QE and boost the peak-size of the RBA’s balance sheet.
How bad is the CnV19 recession going to be? March NFP was -0.5% (37th worst since 1940), and April is likely to be the worst ever (-10%). Real time measures suggest this is 5x worse than the GFC.
The Fed spiked the market with dovishness this morning. Taking the market implied rate for the end-19 fed funds rate
Terry McCrann (again) spiked the markets on Wednesday with an explosive article that warned that the RBA could cut 50bps
Vice Fed Chair Clarida gave a very interesting speech entitled Sustaining Maximum Employment and Price Stability on 30 May. It
My argument for a May rate cut by the RBA basically boils down to the observation that inflation is very
The slow pace of inflation in Q1 makes a very strong case for a 25 bps reduction of the RBA’s
The decline of the unemployment rate to 4.9% in February caused the market to substantially reduce the implied probability of
The Sumner stuff on per-capita measures of nominal income growth made me wonder if it made more sense to think
The annual revisions to GDP, and a weak 0.3%qoq in Q3 , mean that the GDP boom of H1’18 has