What I learnt from the August RBA Minutes
The minutes to the RBA’s August meeting confirm that the Board did discuss reversing July’s decision to taper bond purchases
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Payrolls & COVID
The economy was already shedding jobs in early July. The outlook is for more weakness.
From expansion back to recovery?
COVID lockdowns have over-taken the RBA’s recent upgrade of the current assessment from ‘recovery’ to ‘expansion’. A contraction in Q3 would extend the life of QE and boost the peak-size of the RBA’s balance sheet.
How bad is the CnV19 recession going to be?
How bad is the CnV19 recession going to be? March NFP was -0.5% (37th worst since 1940), and April is likely to be the worst ever (-10%). Real time measures suggest this is 5x worse than the GFC.
Fed set for -100bps — starting with -50 in July
The Fed spiked the market with dovishness this morning. Taking the market implied rate for the end-19 fed funds rate
What’s right and wrong with Terry McCrann’s Wynx article
Terry McCrann (again) spiked the markets on Wednesday with an explosive article that warned that the RBA could cut 50bps
Clarida: King of the Doves?
Vice Fed Chair Clarida gave a very interesting speech entitled Sustaining Maximum Employment and Price Stability on 30 May. It
Financial Stability and Mortgage dynamics
My argument for a May rate cut by the RBA basically boils down to the observation that inflation is very
Q1’19 CPI makes strong case for 7 May RBA cut
The slow pace of inflation in Q1 makes a very strong case for a 25 bps reduction of the RBA’s
Don’t give up on a May RBA cut
The decline of the unemployment rate to 4.9% in February caused the market to substantially reduce the implied probability of
Another view on the credit crunch
The Sumner stuff on per-capita measures of nominal income growth made me wonder if it made more sense to think
Aussie GDP boom revised away
The annual revisions to GDP, and a weak 0.3%qoq in Q3 , mean that the GDP boom of H1’18 has
ricardian ambivalence 