Category Archives: Uncategorized

Q1’19 CPI makes strong case for 7 May RBA cut

Posted on April 24, 2019 by

The slow pace of inflation in Q1 makes a very strong case for a 25 bps reduction of the RBA’s policy rate on 7 May, to 1.25%. The key trimmed mean inflation measure increased 28bps to be 1.6% higher over … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, CPI, economics, monetary policy, RBA, Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Don’t give up on a May RBA cut

Posted on March 22, 2019 by

The decline of the unemployment rate to 4.9% in February caused the market to substantially reduce the implied probability of a rate cut in May. This is understandable, but i think it’s wrong. What’s wrong with this is that the … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 7 Comments

Another view on the credit crunch

Posted on March 17, 2019 by

The Sumner stuff on per-capita measures of nominal income growth made me wonder if it made more sense to think about the flow of finance in a per-capita sense. I think it does. With equivalent economic and credit conditions, you’d … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Aussie GDP boom revised away

Posted on December 5, 2018 by

The annual revisions to GDP, and a weak 0.3%qoq in Q3 , mean that the GDP boom of H1’18 has been revised away.  The chart below shows what we thought was true (the red line) v. the new information (black … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

The problem with Aussie Housing

Posted on October 12, 2018 by

The RBA just released their semi-annual Financial Stability Review (FSR).  Predictability, the FSR plays down the risks from the maturity of Interest Only (IO) loans — however I think they are over-confident.  Let me explain.  In the five years prior … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, economics, Housing, RBA, Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Das Lowe-flation

Posted on November 22, 2017 by

RBA Gov Lowe gave the ABE Dinner speech this year — a speech entitled ‘Some Evolving Questions’.  The speech looks at the transition away from the mining investment peak , the broken link between jobs, wages and inflation, and the risks … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 8 Comments

No means no! (RBA edition)

Posted on November 10, 2017 by

Say you were the Governor of an inflation targeting central bank and wanted to communicate to the world that you were not about to raise rates — what would you do? How about forecast that inflation remains outside of your control … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 7 Comments

RBA is wrong on inflation (again)

Posted on October 29, 2017 by

Q3 CPI has printed, but it is the same old story — the RBA is wrong on inflation.   They are in good company.  Pretty much every central bank has chronically over-estimated inflation over the past few years.  If it were … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Are cuts back on the table?

Posted on October 7, 2017 by

RBA watcher James Glynn pushed the Aussie dollar and bond yields down on Friday with the explosive story RBA not ruling out rate cut.  This impacted the market as hikes are priced for 2018 and consensus has it that Gov … Continue reading →

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 6 Comments

2013 in review

Posted on January 2, 2014 by

The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2013 annual report for this blog. Here’s an excerpt: The concert hall at the Sydney Opera House holds 2,700 people. This blog was viewed about 58,000 times in 2013. If it were a … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments