Category Archives: economics
Today’s Australian Employment report for January 2019 was good — but it was actually better than it looked. The reason is the sample rotation actually biased the results down. The incoming group was a weak group (Low employment and high … Continue reading
The RBA went back to an explicitly neutral bias at their Feb’19 policy window — via an interesting bit of subtlety. The central forecast remains for a gradual decline of the unemployment rate and a very modest acceleration of core … Continue reading
The RBA just released their semi-annual Financial Stability Review (FSR). Predictability, the FSR plays down the risks from the maturity of Interest Only (IO) loans — however I think they are over-confident. Let me explain. In the five years prior … Continue reading
Getting right to the point, my view is that the Feb 2014 jobs report is bunkum. The survey is not designed to measure the number of jobs, and if you use a household survey for this purpose you are going … Continue reading
The 0.8%q/q GDP print looked pretty good at the headline level, and the 2.75%y/y (v. RBA at 2.5%y/y) looked even better – but when you dig a little deeper that is where the good news ends. Over the last two … Continue reading
The Jan 2014 labour market report was BAD. The unemployment rate rose to 6% — exceeding the GFC peak — as the ranks of unemployed women rose (female employment had been relatively stable).
Regardless of what you think of the institution, the IMF’s article IV consultation reports are useful as a source of information (and in particular for a summary of what the ‘official family’ is thinking). The Fund‘s 2013 Australia report reveals that staff … Continue reading
Finding what you expect is a common failing of human beings — however I doubt it is wishful thinking that’s got me finding confirmation of my expectations in the RBA’s Q1’14 SOMP. As ever, the place to start with is … Continue reading
There are some interesting stories in the October employment data. The macro news isn’t great, but the good(ish) news is that the unemployment rate remained basically steady at 5.7% (in unrounded terms is was +0.1).