Category Archives: economics

When +50k is -5k (maybe)

Getting right to the point,  my view is that the Feb 2014 jobs report is bunkum.  The survey is not designed to measure the number of jobs, and if you use a household survey for this purpose you are going … Continue reading

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GD-what?

The 0.8%q/q GDP print looked pretty good at the headline level, and the 2.75%y/y (v. RBA at 2.5%y/y) looked even better – but when you dig a little deeper that is where the good news ends. Over the last two … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged | 4 Comments

Aussie labour market plumbs new lows (Jan’14 report)

The Jan 2014 labour market report was BAD. The unemployment rate rose to 6% — exceeding the GFC peak — as the ranks of unemployed women rose (female employment had been relatively stable).

Posted in AUD, economics, RBA | Tagged , | 13 Comments

IMF worries about mining bust, says AUD still 5% to 10% rich

Regardless of what you think of the institution, the IMF’s article IV consultation reports are useful as a source of information (and in particular for a summary of what the ‘official family’ is thinking). The Fund‘s 2013 Australia report reveals that staff … Continue reading

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not so hawkish (Q1’14 RBA SOMP)

Finding what you expect is a common failing of human beings — however I doubt it is wishful thinking that’s got me finding confirmation of my expectations in the RBA’s Q1’14 SOMP. As ever, the place to start with is … Continue reading

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Where did all the men go? (Oct Jobs report)

There are some interesting stories in the October employment data. The macro news isn’t great, but the good(ish) news is that the unemployment rate remained basically steady at 5.7% (in unrounded terms is was +0.1).

Posted in AUD, economics, RBA | Tagged | 7 Comments

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (Sep jobs edition)

These three charts summarise the state of the labour market — and the September employment report. The good news is that the trend in hours worked is firm — in typical cycles hours pick up first, then job ads, and … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged | 11 Comments

troublesome t-bills

Last night’s four week US T-bill auction result was a little odd. The auction of US$30bn of four week paper was well enough covered (~83bn of bids v. ~30bn of paper), however the results reveal a fairly large change of sentiment. … Continue reading

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Shutdown crashes US confidence

According to Gallop’s daily survey, US economic confidence has crashed as a result of the government shutdown. The FOMC decision not to taper is looking like a good one.

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Yawning PCE gaps lead to low inflation

The monthly US PCE report is one of my favourite.  US consumption is not just a bit part of the US economy, but a big part of the engine that has driven global growth these past few decades. The August … Continue reading

Posted in economics, FOMC, monetary policy | Tagged | 13 Comments