The RBA today made November’s decision and pre-committed to buying at a 4bn pace until at least February 2022. The
Q2 GDP was +0.7%qoq and 9.6%yoy, to be pretty much bang-on the RBA’s forecast of 9.5%yoy. I said this morning
Q2’21 GDP is going to be weak: say +0.25%qoq. More likely 0%qoq than 0.5%qoq. My tracking estimate of the GDP-expenditure
Another quarter of weak consumption and a decline of the ABS measure of job vacancies challenges the RBA’s conclusion that there’s no wealth effect form housing & their reliance on the lagging ABS measure of labour demand.
Taxes have been growing more quickly than income — so the tax share of the average person’s income has gone up sharply. In this post I lay out the facts about the income tax debate. It’s most about returning bracket creep, and stabilising the tax share of GDP.
The RBA’s realisation that the NAIRU is a bit lower is a case of better late than never. The data shows that the relationship has been getting flatter at a lower level of inflation for some time.
RBA Gov Lowe delivered a speech that was widely interpreted as locking in a 25bps rate cut in June. The
The April employment report revealed a slackening of the labour market — and is probably enough to get a 25bps
The Australian Q1’19 Wage Price index again printed at 0.5%q/q (2.3%y/y). This is the 11th print in the ~0.5%q/q ballpark
I must admit to being a bit stunned by the RBA’s May SOMP. There were a number of elements that
Against my expectations, the RBA left their policy rate at 1.5% today. My main lesson from all this is that
My call that the RBA would cut rates in May was originally a little speculative — but following the Q1’19