Category Archives: Labour Market

RBA’s labour market (cut) test is met

The April employment report revealed a slackening of the labour market — and is probably enough to get a 25bps rate cut in June. The headline unemployment rate rose ~14bps to 5.20%, with March revised up ~2bps to 5.065%. Don’t … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, Labour Market, monetary policy, RBA | 4 Comments

Two points on WPI

The Australian Q1’19 Wage Price index again printed at 0.5%q/q (2.3%y/y). This is the 11th print in the ~0.5%q/q ballpark since 2015 — which is to say that it’s been ~0.5%q/q about two thirds of the time over the past … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, Labour Market | 4 Comments

There goes the employment bull-case

I must admit to being a bit stunned by the RBA’s May SOMP. There were a number of elements that strained credibility — but in particular i felt that the labour market sections were a stretch. But, as ever, the … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, Labour Market, monetary policy, RBA | 3 Comments

RBA holds; bring on Lowe-flation

Against my expectations, the RBA left their policy rate at 1.5% today.  My main lesson from all this is that Gov Lowe doesn’t care much for his 2.5% inflation target. How else can we interpret leaving policy on hold with … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, CPI, economics, Labour Market, monetary policy, RBA | 3 Comments

The RBA’s Consumption trigger

RBA Assistant Gov (Economic) Luci Ellis this morning gave a very careful speech on the household sector. In particular, it goes into some detail about why household income in the national accounts has looked so weak despite a firm labour … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, Labour Market, RBA | 8 Comments

Average wages slump in Q4’18

The biggest problem in Aussie macro is weak household cash flow. Today’s Aussie Business Indicators report suggest that things are getting worse — not better. On the quarter, nominal wages and salaries paid by the private sector grew by a little … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, Labour Market | 7 Comments

Better than it looked

Today’s Australian Employment report for January 2019 was good — but it was actually better than it looked. The reason is the sample rotation actually biased the results down. The incoming group was a weak group (Low employment and high … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, Labour Market | 1 Comment