Lockdowns were hurting Jobs in July
The gross flows data shows that the NSW lockdowns in July were damaging. The longer the lockdown, the greater the damage … so the worst is yet to come.
Category: Labour Market
RBA: Double-cut … no pike
The RBA cut 25bps to 1% on 2 July, delivering a rare back-to-back easing. They didn’t, however, drop the sort of hint that would suggest another cut in August.
Australia’s disappearing Phillips Curve
The RBA’s realisation that the NAIRU is a bit lower is a case of better late than never. The data shows that the relationship has been getting flatter at a lower level of inflation for some time.
Lowe locks June … looks awkward
RBA Gov Lowe delivered a speech that was widely interpreted as locking in a 25bps rate cut in June. The
RBA’s labour market (cut) test is met
The April employment report revealed a slackening of the labour market — and is probably enough to get a 25bps
Two points on WPI
The Australian Q1’19 Wage Price index again printed at 0.5%q/q (2.3%y/y). This is the 11th print in the ~0.5%q/q ballpark
There goes the employment bull-case
I must admit to being a bit stunned by the RBA’s May SOMP. There were a number of elements that
RBA holds; bring on Lowe-flation
Against my expectations, the RBA left their policy rate at 1.5% today. My main lesson from all this is that
The RBA’s Consumption trigger
RBA Assistant Gov (Economic) Luci Ellis this morning gave a very careful speech on the household sector. In particular, it
Average wages slump in Q4’18
The biggest problem in Aussie macro is weak household cash flow. Today’s Aussie Business Indicators report suggest that things are getting
Better than it looked
Today’s Australian Employment report for January 2019 was good — but it was actually better than it looked. The reason
ricardian ambivalence 