RBA ‘thesis snaps
Another quarter of weak consumption and a decline of the ABS measure of job vacancies challenges the RBA’s conclusion that there’s no wealth effect form housing & their reliance on the lagging ABS measure of labour demand.
Category: AUD
Qld Coal country
In this post I look at the federal election results in Qld. I first look at the two-party-preferred swing, and then at the swing in the Labor primary vote. The closer a seat is to a coal mine (particularly Adani) the lower the ALP primary vote and the larger the 2pp swing to the LNP.
RBA: Double-cut … no pike
The RBA cut 25bps to 1% on 2 July, delivering a rare back-to-back easing. They didn’t, however, drop the sort of hint that would suggest another cut in August.
I’m cold on a July RBA rate cut
I don’t think the RBA will cut their cash rate in July. It would be odd and out of character for a Governor and a Board that has emphasised that importance of the Bank being ‘a source of stability and confidence’ over the past few years.
Five points on the income tax cut debate
Taxes have been growing more quickly than income — so the tax share of the average person’s income has gone up sharply. In this post I lay out the facts about the income tax debate. It’s most about returning bracket creep, and stabilising the tax share of GDP.
What’s right and wrong with Terry McCrann’s Wynx article
Terry McCrann (again) spiked the markets on Wednesday with an explosive article that warned that the RBA could cut 50bps
Australia’s disappearing Phillips Curve
The RBA’s realisation that the NAIRU is a bit lower is a case of better late than never. The data shows that the relationship has been getting flatter at a lower level of inflation for some time.
Lowe locks June … looks awkward
RBA Gov Lowe delivered a speech that was widely interpreted as locking in a 25bps rate cut in June. The
RBA’s labour market (cut) test is met
The April employment report revealed a slackening of the labour market — and is probably enough to get a 25bps
Two points on WPI
The Australian Q1’19 Wage Price index again printed at 0.5%q/q (2.3%y/y). This is the 11th print in the ~0.5%q/q ballpark
There goes the employment bull-case
I must admit to being a bit stunned by the RBA’s May SOMP. There were a number of elements that
Terry explains RBA’s May statement
RBA Shadow Gov. Terry McCrann has published (what looks to be) a backgrounded story explaining the RBA’s post meeting statement.
