Category Archives: AUD
The RBA has set things up to resume the easing cycle that began in 2011 (I never believed in the whole ‘neutral’ thing … see here). My current view is that the RBA will cut by 50bps in 2015, taking their policy rate … Continue reading
Getting right to the point, my view is that the Feb 2014 jobs report is bunkum. The survey is not designed to measure the number of jobs, and if you use a household survey for this purpose you are going … Continue reading
The 0.8%q/q GDP print looked pretty good at the headline level, and the 2.75%y/y (v. RBA at 2.5%y/y) looked even better – but when you dig a little deeper that is where the good news ends. Over the last two … Continue reading
The Jan 2014 labour market report was BAD. The unemployment rate rose to 6% — exceeding the GFC peak — as the ranks of unemployed women rose (female employment had been relatively stable).
Regardless of what you think of the institution, the IMF’s article IV consultation reports are useful as a source of information (and in particular for a summary of what the ‘official family’ is thinking). The Fund‘s 2013 Australia report reveals that staff … Continue reading
Finding what you expect is a common failing of human beings — however I doubt it is wishful thinking that’s got me finding confirmation of my expectations in the RBA’s Q1’14 SOMP. As ever, the place to start with is … Continue reading
A funny thing happened yesterday. It was not the RBA dropping their easing bias — which was fairly obvious given the Q4’13 inflation surprise — but the way the market traded on the news. To see why this was odd, … Continue reading
There are some interesting stories in the October employment data. The macro news isn’t great, but the good(ish) news is that the unemployment rate remained basically steady at 5.7% (in unrounded terms is was +0.1).
These three charts summarise the state of the labour market — and the September employment report. The good news is that the trend in hours worked is firm — in typical cycles hours pick up first, then job ads, and … Continue reading