macro, politics, markets, ambivalence
Taxes have been growing more quickly than income — so the tax share of the average person’s income has gone up sharply. In this post I lay out the facts about the income tax debate. It’s most about returning bracket creep, and stabilising the tax share of GDP.
Terry McCrann (again) spiked the markets on Wednesday with an explosive article that warned that the RBA could cut 50bps
The RBA’s realisation that the NAIRU is a bit lower is a case of better late than never. The data shows that the relationship has been getting flatter at a lower level of inflation for some time.
RBA Gov Lowe delivered a speech that was widely interpreted as locking in a 25bps rate cut in June. The
The April employment report revealed a slackening of the labour market — and is probably enough to get a 25bps
The Australian Q1’19 Wage Price index again printed at 0.5%q/q (2.3%y/y). This is the 11th print in the ~0.5%q/q ballpark
I must admit to being a bit stunned by the RBA’s May SOMP. There were a number of elements that
RBA Shadow Gov. Terry McCrann has published (what looks to be) a backgrounded story explaining the RBA’s post meeting statement.
Against my expectations, the RBA left their policy rate at 1.5% today. My main lesson from all this is that
My argument for a May rate cut by the RBA basically boils down to the observation that inflation is very
My call that the RBA would cut rates in May was originally a little speculative — but following the Q1’19
The slow pace of inflation in Q1 makes a very strong case for a 25 bps reduction of the RBA’s
ricardian ambivalence 