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Category Archives: economics
The RBA’s neutral bias
The RBA went back to an explicitly neutral bias at their Feb’19 policy window — via an interesting bit of subtlety. The central forecast remains for a gradual decline of the unemployment rate and a very modest acceleration of core … Continue reading
Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA
10 Comments
The problem with Aussie Housing
The RBA just released their semi-annual Financial Stability Review (FSR). Predictability, the FSR plays down the risks from the maturity of Interest Only (IO) loans — however I think they are over-confident. Let me explain. In the five years prior … Continue reading
Posted in AUD, economics, Housing, RBA, Uncategorized
4 Comments
When +50k is -5k (maybe)
Getting right to the point, my view is that the Feb 2014 jobs report is bunkum. The survey is not designed to measure the number of jobs, and if you use a household survey for this purpose you are going … Continue reading
GD-what?
The 0.8%q/q GDP print looked pretty good at the headline level, and the 2.75%y/y (v. RBA at 2.5%y/y) looked even better – but when you dig a little deeper that is where the good news ends. Over the last two … Continue reading
Aussie labour market plumbs new lows (Jan’14 report)
The Jan 2014 labour market report was BAD. The unemployment rate rose to 6% — exceeding the GFC peak — as the ranks of unemployed women rose (female employment had been relatively stable).
IMF worries about mining bust, says AUD still 5% to 10% rich
Regardless of what you think of the institution, the IMF’s article IV consultation reports are useful as a source of information (and in particular for a summary of what the ‘official family’ is thinking). The Fund‘s 2013 Australia report reveals that staff … Continue reading
not so hawkish (Q1’14 RBA SOMP)
Finding what you expect is a common failing of human beings — however I doubt it is wishful thinking that’s got me finding confirmation of my expectations in the RBA’s Q1’14 SOMP. As ever, the place to start with is … Continue reading
Where did all the men go? (Oct Jobs report)
There are some interesting stories in the October employment data. The macro news isn’t great, but the good(ish) news is that the unemployment rate remained basically steady at 5.7% (in unrounded terms is was +0.1).
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (Sep jobs edition)
These three charts summarise the state of the labour market — and the September employment report. The good news is that the trend in hours worked is firm — in typical cycles hours pick up first, then job ads, and … Continue reading
troublesome t-bills
Last night’s four week US T-bill auction result was a little odd. The auction of US$30bn of four week paper was well enough covered (~83bn of bids v. ~30bn of paper), however the results reveal a fairly large change of sentiment. … Continue reading
Posted in Bond Market, economics, monetary policy, US politics
Tagged debt ceiling, t-bills
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