Category Archives: monetary policy

The case for an April easing bias

The RBA board will discuss the disappointing Q4’18 GDP data for the first time at their 2 April board meeting. The size of the downgrade is so large, and the domestic and global data for Q1’19 has been so weak, … Continue reading

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Another look at Nominal Household Income

I was a little thrilled when I saw a link to my blog from a Scott Sumner post on econlib (thanks Rajat!). Scott took a look at my NGDP post and said that he prefers total labor compensation — which … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | 2 Comments

The GDP v. Jobs non-puzzle

Today’s speech by RBA Gov Lowe said that they were puzzling about the concurrent GDP slowdown and strength in the labour market.  Other indicators of the economy, though, paint a softer picture. We will receive another reading on GDP growth … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | 7 Comments

Australia’s household cash-hole

When thinking about Australia and the outlook for policy, I find it hard to get past the below chart. It compares the growth rate of household gross domestic income to household consumption expenditure (both nominal YoY). When the black line … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | 7 Comments

The RBA’s neutral bias

The RBA went back to an explicitly neutral bias at their Feb’19 policy window — via an interesting bit of subtlety. The central forecast remains for a gradual decline of the unemployment rate and a very modest acceleration of core … Continue reading

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Here comes the housing downturn?

It’s been ages since I blogged here — partly because the issues facing the Australian Economy haven’t changed much over the past year or so.   Inflation is stuck at a pace that is too low (at least relative to the … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, Housing, monetary policy, RBA | 9 Comments

Slowest-ever wages

At first glance, the Q3’17 WPI print was a stable at 0.5%q/q (2.0%y/y) — however once you look at the details it is the lowest ever print for WPI.  The  QoQ non-seasonally adjusted print was 0.8%q/q, reflecting the fact that … Continue reading

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RBA sets up for a cut …

The RBA has set things up to resume the easing cycle that began in 2011 (I never believed in the whole ‘neutral’ thing … see here).  My current view is that the RBA will cut by 50bps in 2015, taking their policy rate … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , | 56 Comments

GD-what?

The 0.8%q/q GDP print looked pretty good at the headline level, and the 2.75%y/y (v. RBA at 2.5%y/y) looked even better – but when you dig a little deeper that is where the good news ends. Over the last two … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged | 4 Comments

not so hawkish (Q1’14 RBA SOMP)

Finding what you expect is a common failing of human beings — however I doubt it is wishful thinking that’s got me finding confirmation of my expectations in the RBA’s Q1’14 SOMP. As ever, the place to start with is … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged | 14 Comments