Category Archives: monetary policy

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (Sep jobs edition)

These three charts summarise the state of the labour market — and the September employment report. The good news is that the trend in hours worked is firm — in typical cycles hours pick up first, then job ads, and … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged | 11 Comments

McCrann riffs on Yellen

The Sun’s Terry McCrann has published a great column on the nomination of Yellen and what it might mean for the AUD. The AUD bottomed in early August at ~89c, and has rallied back to ~94c due to the fed’s … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, FOMC, monetary policy, RBA, USD | Tagged , , | 23 Comments

troublesome t-bills

Last night’s four week US T-bill auction result was a little odd. The auction of US$30bn of four week paper was well enough covered (~83bn of bids v. ~30bn of paper), however the results reveal a fairly large change of sentiment. … Continue reading

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Shutdown crashes US confidence

According to Gallop’s daily survey, US economic confidence has crashed as a result of the government shutdown. The FOMC decision not to taper is looking like a good one.

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RBA sees policy gaining traction

The October RBA Statement had only a few changes from their September statement. Overall, my assessment is that there is one big change, and that is to the financial conditions paragraph. The addition of a line that savers are taking … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged | 12 Comments

Yawning PCE gaps lead to low inflation

The monthly US PCE report is one of my favourite.  US consumption is not just a bit part of the US economy, but a big part of the engine that has driven global growth these past few decades. The August … Continue reading

Posted in economics, FOMC, monetary policy | Tagged | 13 Comments

Taper-off … Taylor Broken

The Federal Reserve’s decision NOT to announce a slowing of the pace of their asset purchases at their September meeting caught the market by surprise. Even with Bernanke’s prior guidance that “asset purchases are not on auto-pilot”, and that the … Continue reading

Posted in economics, FOMC, monetary policy, USD | Tagged , | 16 Comments

learning from Lehman

This is the five year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the steady stream of retrospectives has given me cause to think back on my own journey. There is little doubt that my views have changed substantially over … Continue reading

Posted in academic economists, economics, monetary policy | Tagged , | 9 Comments

Can you taper with that?

I have been of the view that the Fed would announce a tapering of their Treasury purchases at the upcoming (September 18) policy window.  I still hold that view — but with much less conviction.  The fact is that the … Continue reading

Posted in economics, FOMC, monetary policy, USD | Tagged , | 23 Comments

Scope-less RBA?

The RBA set the cat amongst the pigeons yesterday, by dropping the ‘scope to ease’ section from their concluding paragraph. It now reads: At today’s meeting, the Board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate. The Board will … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged | 16 Comments