monetary policy – Page 4 – ricardian ambivalence

learning from Lehman

This is the five year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the steady stream of retrospectives has given

I have been of the view that the Fed would announce a tapering of their Treasury purchases at the upcoming

The RBA set the cat amongst the pigeons yesterday, by dropping the ‘scope to ease’ section from their concluding paragraph.

The September RBA meeting is unlikely to be a big event. While i am sure that Gov Stevens still believes

We’re now on the run into the September FOMC meeting. The key report will be this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report

The RBA changed the language of their concluding statement in the minutes of the August meeting. Gone was the following

The market got the RBA statement wrong today — Australian interest rate futures sold off and the AUD rallied following

Last night’s price action spoke to the virtues of sleeping deeply and turning off your phone. First, better than expected

I missed the mark with regard to Gov Stevens’ speech yesterday, at least as far as the market was concerned.

Following the Q2 CPI report, the market is pricing the August meeting at ~80%. There are decent reasons for this:

The typically well informed (especially on things Democratic) Ezra Klein reports that Summers is now the leading contender to replace

The QE outlook has started to dim, as Lawrence Summers firms as favourite to replace Bernanke next year. This seems