macro, politics, markets, ambivalence
The AFR’s John Kehoe reports that the RBA would not have tapered on 6 July if they’d foreseen the lockdowns. I think the RBA will reverse that decision on 3 August. It would be good strategy to remind the market that YCC’s not dead, it’s just frozen.
Another quarter of weak consumption and a decline of the ABS measure of job vacancies challenges the RBA’s conclusion that there’s no wealth effect form housing & their reliance on the lagging ABS measure of labour demand.
I don’t think the RBA will cut their cash rate in July. It would be odd and out of character for a Governor and a Board that has emphasised that importance of the Bank being ‘a source of stability and confidence’ over the past few years.
Terry McCrann (again) spiked the markets on Wednesday with an explosive article that warned that the RBA could cut 50bps
RBA Gov Lowe delivered a speech that was widely interpreted as locking in a 25bps rate cut in June. The
The April employment report revealed a slackening of the labour market — and is probably enough to get a 25bps
I must admit to being a bit stunned by the RBA’s May SOMP. There were a number of elements that
RBA Shadow Gov. Terry McCrann has published (what looks to be) a backgrounded story explaining the RBA’s post meeting statement.
Against my expectations, the RBA left their policy rate at 1.5% today. My main lesson from all this is that
My argument for a May rate cut by the RBA basically boils down to the observation that inflation is very
My call that the RBA would cut rates in May was originally a little speculative — but following the Q1’19
The slow pace of inflation in Q1 makes a very strong case for a 25 bps reduction of the RBA’s
ricardian ambivalence 