How bad is the CnV19 recession going to be?
How bad is the CnV19 recession going to be? March NFP was -0.5% (37th worst since 1940), and April is likely to be the worst ever (-10%). Real time measures suggest this is 5x worse than the GFC.
RBA ‘thesis snaps
Another quarter of weak consumption and a decline of the ABS measure of job vacancies challenges the RBA’s conclusion that there’s no wealth effect form housing & their reliance on the lagging ABS measure of labour demand.
Qld Coal country
In this post I look at the federal election results in Qld. I first look at the two-party-preferred swing, and then at the swing in the Labor primary vote. The closer a seat is to a coal mine (particularly Adani) the lower the ALP primary vote and the larger the 2pp swing to the LNP.
RBA: Double-cut … no pike
The RBA cut 25bps to 1% on 2 July, delivering a rare back-to-back easing. They didn’t, however, drop the sort of hint that would suggest another cut in August.
Mines, shy voters, and the 2019 Federal Election Puzzle
In this post i look at the relationship between the two party preferred swing to the LNP at the last election, and find that the location of mines may explain the strength of the swing. I speculate that shyness about views on mining and climate change may account for the fact that the polls didn’t detect the mood.
I’m cold on a July RBA rate cut
I don’t think the RBA will cut their cash rate in July. It would be odd and out of character for a Governor and a Board that has emphasised that importance of the Bank being ‘a source of stability and confidence’ over the past few years.
Five points on the income tax cut debate
Taxes have been growing more quickly than income — so the tax share of the average person’s income has gone up sharply. In this post I lay out the facts about the income tax debate. It’s most about returning bracket creep, and stabilising the tax share of GDP.
Fed set for -100bps — starting with -50 in July
The Fed spiked the market with dovishness this morning. Taking the market implied rate for the end-19 fed funds rate
What’s right and wrong with Terry McCrann’s Wynx article
Terry McCrann (again) spiked the markets on Wednesday with an explosive article that warned that the RBA could cut 50bps
Clarida: King of the Doves?
Vice Fed Chair Clarida gave a very interesting speech entitled Sustaining Maximum Employment and Price Stability on 30 May. It
Australia’s disappearing Phillips Curve
The RBA’s realisation that the NAIRU is a bit lower is a case of better late than never. The data shows that the relationship has been getting flatter at a lower level of inflation for some time.
Fed staff lose hope on inflation
Hidden inside the minutes to the Fed’s 30 April meeting is an alarming paragraph that suggests Fed staff have grave
ricardian ambivalence 