ricardian ambivalence

Lowe locks June … looks awkward

RBA Gov Lowe delivered a speech that was widely interpreted as locking in a 25bps rate cut in June. The

The April employment report revealed a slackening of the labour market — and is probably enough to get a 25bps

The Australian Q1’19 Wage Price index again printed at 0.5%q/q (2.3%y/y). This is the 11th print in the ~0.5%q/q ballpark

I must admit to being a bit stunned by the RBA’s May SOMP. There were a number of elements that

RBA Shadow Gov. Terry McCrann has published (what looks to be) a backgrounded story explaining the RBA’s post meeting statement.

Against my expectations, the RBA left their policy rate at 1.5% today. My main lesson from all this is that

My argument for a May rate cut by the RBA basically boils down to the observation that inflation is very

My call that the RBA would cut rates in May was originally a little speculative — but following the Q1’19

The slow pace of inflation in Q1 makes a very strong case for a 25 bps reduction of the RBA’s

The case for the RBA to cut their cash rate at their 7 May meeting has been beaten up by

The IMF today downgraded global growth 20bps to 3.3%yoy (lowest since GFC), and said that the risks are skewed to

The RBA made a subtle change to their concluding paragraph of their April post-meeting statement last week. Given that they