The weak Q2 CWD release confirms my hunch that housing won’t drive growth any longer. It also shaved about 30bps from my tracking of the RBA’s GDP forecast (now +0.4%qoq).
The Sumner stuff on per-capita measures of nominal income growth made me wonder if it made more sense to think
My judgement about the very short-term RBA outlook comes down to a judgement about the state of the Australian housing
A key reason i do not think the RBA will ease their policy rate at their May meeting is that