Peak Housing (construction) and Q2 GDP
The weak Q2 CWD release confirms my hunch that housing won’t drive growth any longer. It also shaved about 30bps from my tracking of the RBA’s GDP forecast (now +0.4%qoq).
macro, politics, markets, ambivalence
The weak Q2 CWD release confirms my hunch that housing won’t drive growth any longer. It also shaved about 30bps from my tracking of the RBA’s GDP forecast (now +0.4%qoq).
The Sumner stuff on per-capita measures of nominal income growth made me wonder if it made more sense to think
My judgement about the very short-term RBA outlook comes down to a judgement about the state of the Australian housing
A key reason i do not think the RBA will ease their policy rate at their May meeting is that