Posted by Central banks take seriously the idea that there is information in internet searches that is useful in taking the economy’s pulse — see for example, the following from the bank of England’s Q2 Bulletin.
After a little bit of fiddling with the search term, I decided to use “unemployment benefits” for Australia — this delivered the following (note i seasonally adjusted the google data).
The historical correlation suggests that the unemplyoment rate is about to head lower. Google got the recent flat spot right, and now their search results suggest the unemployment rate is about to head lower.
ricardian ambivalence 
You just found yourself a leading economic indictor. Rate rise?
Well, it is not a leader – it is concurrent. It is just that the other data suffers production lags. But yes, a lower unemployment rate should mean tighter money.
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Good distinction. Hadn’t considered production lag.
sorry for being a bit simple what what is your actual data source for unemployment benefits
it’s google searches — see http://www.google.com/insights/search/#
Very nice! However the most recent (June) data might not be up to date yet? On the graph they say: “The last value on the graph is based on partial data and may change” . This seems quite visible on the 12 months graph. Plus you can’t plot yet the last 30 days. Probably better results by the end of June.
Good point. Yes plenty of time for things to change. Especially with Europe apparently blowing up, folks might become a bit more worried about their outlook.
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