Author Archives: Ricardo

Aussie GDP boom revised away

The annual revisions to GDP, and a weak 0.3%qoq in Q3 , mean that the GDP boom of H1’18 has been revised away.  The chart below shows what we thought was true (the red line) v. the new information (black … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Another perspective on Aussie Jobs

The ABS handed us another puzzle yesterday — the September jobs report told us that employment growth wasn’t keeping up with population growth (you need about 15k jobs per month to keep up) but that the unemployment rate fell to … Continue reading

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The problem with Aussie Housing

The RBA just released their semi-annual Financial Stability Review (FSR).  Predictability, the FSR plays down the risks from the maturity of Interest Only (IO) loans — however I think they are over-confident.  Let me explain.  In the five years prior … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, Housing, RBA, Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Here comes the housing downturn?

It’s been ages since I blogged here — partly because the issues facing the Australian Economy haven’t changed much over the past year or so.   Inflation is stuck at a pace that is too low (at least relative to the … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, Housing, monetary policy, RBA | 9 Comments

Das Lowe-flation

RBA Gov Lowe gave the ABE Dinner speech this year — a speech entitled ‘Some Evolving Questions’.  The speech looks at the transition away from the mining investment peak , the broken link between jobs, wages and inflation, and the risks … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 8 Comments

Slowest-ever wages

At first glance, the Q3’17 WPI print was a stable at 0.5%q/q (2.0%y/y) — however once you look at the details it is the lowest ever print for WPI.  The  QoQ non-seasonally adjusted print was 0.8%q/q, reflecting the fact that … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, monetary policy, RBA | 10 Comments

No means no! (RBA edition)

Say you were the Governor of an inflation targeting central bank and wanted to communicate to the world that you were not about to raise rates — what would you do? How about forecast that inflation remains outside of your control … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 7 Comments

RBA is wrong on inflation (again)

Q3 CPI has printed, but it is the same old story — the RBA is wrong on inflation.   They are in good company.  Pretty much every central bank has chronically over-estimated inflation over the past few years.  If it were … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Are cuts back on the table?

RBA watcher James Glynn pushed the Aussie dollar and bond yields down on Friday with the explosive story RBA not ruling out rate cut.  This impacted the market as hikes are priced for 2018 and consensus has it that Gov … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 6 Comments

RBA goes the full pom-pom

[is this thing still on?] It’s been a long time since I blogged, but today’s RBA statement has lit a modest fire … Before I riff on what’s wrong with the Bank, let me put down some context. The Bank’s … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, RBA | 6 Comments