Author Archives: Ricardo

Better than it looked

Today’s Australian Employment report for January 2019 was good — but it was actually better than it looked. The reason is the sample rotation actually biased the results down. The incoming group was a weak group (Low employment and high … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, Labour Market | 1 Comment

The RBA’s neutral bias

The RBA went back to an explicitly neutral bias at their Feb’19 policy window — via an interesting bit of subtlety. The central forecast remains for a gradual decline of the unemployment rate and a very modest acceleration of core … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | 10 Comments

Aussie GDP boom revised away

The annual revisions to GDP, and a weak 0.3%qoq in Q3 , mean that the GDP boom of H1’18 has been revised away.  The chart below shows what we thought was true (the red line) v. the new information (black … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Another perspective on Aussie Jobs

The ABS handed us another puzzle yesterday — the September jobs report told us that employment growth wasn’t keeping up with population growth (you need about 15k jobs per month to keep up) but that the unemployment rate fell to … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, RBA | Leave a comment

The problem with Aussie Housing

The RBA just released their semi-annual Financial Stability Review (FSR).  Predictability, the FSR plays down the risks from the maturity of Interest Only (IO) loans — however I think they are over-confident.  Let me explain.  In the five years prior … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, Housing, RBA, Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Here comes the housing downturn?

It’s been ages since I blogged here — partly because the issues facing the Australian Economy haven’t changed much over the past year or so.   Inflation is stuck at a pace that is too low (at least relative to the … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, Housing, monetary policy, RBA | 9 Comments

Das Lowe-flation

RBA Gov Lowe gave the ABE Dinner speech this year — a speech entitled ‘Some Evolving Questions’.  The speech looks at the transition away from the mining investment peak , the broken link between jobs, wages and inflation, and the risks … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 8 Comments

Slowest-ever wages

At first glance, the Q3’17 WPI print was a stable at 0.5%q/q (2.0%y/y) — however once you look at the details it is the lowest ever print for WPI.  The  QoQ non-seasonally adjusted print was 0.8%q/q, reflecting the fact that … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, monetary policy, RBA | 10 Comments

No means no! (RBA edition)

Say you were the Governor of an inflation targeting central bank and wanted to communicate to the world that you were not about to raise rates — what would you do? How about forecast that inflation remains outside of your control … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, RBA, Uncategorized | 7 Comments

RBA is wrong on inflation (again)

Q3 CPI has printed, but it is the same old story — the RBA is wrong on inflation.   They are in good company.  Pretty much every central bank has chronically over-estimated inflation over the past few years.  If it were … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments