Is the ALP doomed to lose in 2013?

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Newspoll data is available back to 1993, but only becomes frequent on a two party preferred basis in 2003 — I fondly remember the excitement of it all. Anyhow, they make their data freely available on their web-site.

Looking at the full data set, you can see how uniquely badly the ALP is traveling in the polls – though I suppose there is only one change of Government, and Howard was popular to almost the end, so we don’t have really have many data points. Still, this looks nearly as serious as the Coalition/Howard death-spiral in 2007.

Setting aside the fact that we may have a terribly small sample – and so little ability to truly support such conjecture – it seems that the ALP might have already lost the next poll (due 2013, if they can last that long).


  1. wait until sometime next year.

    We can make a better judgement when people realise the ETS is going to make a far less impact than the GST and assuming no European collapse the budget is back into the black.

    1. i sense that what annoys folks about the ETS is that they understand that global warming is a global issue, and that this policy purchases a certain amount of pain for an uncertain reduction in global warming.

  2. Nah,

    Gillard was told that saying we needed a ‘carbon tax’ would go over well. It ain’t a carbon tax but a fixed price for an ETS which has been clearly misunderstood by her and the punters.
    Moreover she and the rest still cannot explain why there need to be a change at the top.

    Perceptions are conquering reality at present. Even in different circumstances, given that this mob couldn’t sell a beer on a hot day you would have to wonder whether there will be a change but merely a smaller change.

    A mere example. Anyone with even a basic understanding of fiscal policy knew the Opposition’s fiscal policy wasn’t worth a row of beans. We didn’t need Treasury to tell us. Yet the punters think the Opposition would be better economic managers!!

  3. Think of this like the GST.

    The great angst caused by the GST was not the tax as people soon realised that was vastly overstated. It was the problems of the getting ABNs but most particularly the work involved in doing a BAS.

    That isn’t applicable here thus after the ETS starts and the impact is over 5 times less than the GST people will lose a lot of angst.

    The question is where will this go to.

    Back in 2001 it moved to Tampa and refugees

    1. I have no idea how people will see things, but my sense is that the GST settled in well as it was essentially welfare enhancing – it was certainly income enhancing.

      This policy cannot be sold on that basis. We give up some money GDP for a little more green GDP. But how much green GDP we get for our money is very uncertain, and possibly zero.

      There is no reform i know of that was ever big enough to be sold on the basis that it would increase real wages by 10bps per year for 50yrs.

      This one will reduce real wages by that amount. Sure they still grow, as that is relative to baseline – but the same thing could is true for all the reforms that boosted income.

      I think this aspect is a pretty big deal.

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