First fed hike is 2016?

The fed has released the blank template for its rate forecasts. Significantly, it goes out to 2016, which suggests there are some fed governors who are more ‘dovish’ than i am – i expect the first hikes in H2’15.

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2 Responses to First fed hike is 2016?

  1. On your Marx says:

    On a forward looking Taylor rule you would be raising rates as unemployment approaches 8% so if the Fed is confident of its projections then rates would be rising before 2016, more like 2013

    • Ricardo says:

      i’m interested to know what weights you are using. i did the Orph-rule a while back, and i think i got ~7% as the trigger assuming inflation ~2%.

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