First fed hike is 2016?

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The fed has released the blank template for its rate forecasts. Significantly, it goes out to 2016, which suggests there are some fed governors who are more ‘dovish’ than i am – i expect the first hikes in H2’15.


  1. On a forward looking Taylor rule you would be raising rates as unemployment approaches 8% so if the Fed is confident of its projections then rates would be rising before 2016, more like 2013

    1. i’m interested to know what weights you are using. i did the Orph-rule a while back, and i think i got ~7% as the trigger assuming inflation ~2%.

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