The Telegraph reports the findings of the latest Galaxy poll on the ALP leadership.
With Gillard, the ALP polls 34% of the primary vote (down from 38% at the 2010 election). After preferences, the two party preferred splits 46% ALP v. 54% Coalition (down from essentially 50% each in 2010).
Due to redistributions, the ALP needs to win seats at the next poll to hold government, so this equates to a pretty bad loss.
With Rudd as leader, folks reckon they are more inclined to vote for the ALP. Their primary vote lifts to 37% and their two party preferred is a competitive 49%
What is interesting to me is the devide among ALP voters. 53% of ALP voters think Rudd is the best option v. 39% Gillard (8% uncommitted). You need a lot of volunteers to do well in an election, and the split in the base suggests the energy of the Kevin-07 campaign will be difficult to muster – regardless of who leads
Also notable is that the main reason folks think Rudd should lead the ALP once again is ‘the way he was deposed’ (58%).
Clearly the manner in which he was deposed still rankles in the electorate. While few in the ALP seem to like Rudd, the electorate seems to like him.
They see him as a wronged man, and prospect of wronging the martyr again must worry a few MPs. The ALP risks developing a reputation as a bunch of nasty backstabbers.
For mine, all Rudd needs to do is to exceed expectations in Monday’s ballot. A vote in the 40s would be enough to keep this thing alive, even if Rudd goes quiet himself.