Some folks made a fuss about the big jump in US consumer credit in March. This reflected poor knowledge of the data. The data is appropriately dissected here.
Bottom line – a subsidy to student borrowing spiked demand. Excluding student loans from the government, we are still bouncing along the bottom.
ECRI reaffirmed their recession call again overnight. Stocks have a long way to fall if they’re right and the 10-year could finally fall enough to give PIMCO a profit!
This time i think they may be onto something. I think US 10yrs go to 1.5% in next two qtrs, and AUD to 3%
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