AFG’s May spike – mostly seasonal

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The AFG data for May showed a sharp spike, and was (potentially) the first hint that the RBA’s earlier rate cuts are flowing through the housing transmission channel. This post suggests that the increase may be more apparent than real. It suggests that the increase my be mostly seasonal (more trading days this May), and that market share and (unrepresentative) geographical coverage mean that the headline AFG data is overstating things.

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