Guest post: This election will be about who can you trust

Reader Dr Page sent me the following email – I wanted to share it, as it shows the swings he’d expects given the recent Neilson poll, and he didn’t mind …

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The Neilsen poll released this morning is catastrophic for Labor. The worst aspect is the finding that only 6 per cent of people think they will be better off despite the Prime Minister promising that 4 million households would be (about 45 per cent of households). This 40 per cent credibility gap goes to the heart of the problem: people just don’t trust what the Prime Minister says.

Neilsen pollster John Stirton was asked about the implications of these results this morning on AM:

“[I] haven’t done the calculation on seats, but the government would be wiped out similar to the results in the NSW election in March … they would lose a swag of seats across the country on those results.”

He is not wrong.

The poll amounts to an 11.12 per cent swing against Labor from the 2010 election. 43 Labor members would lose their seats if the swing was nationally uniform, reducing Labor to 29 seats in the 150 member House of Representatives. Labor has 20 members in the 93 member NSW Legislative Assembly.

Among those to lose their seats would be, Wayne Swan, Gary Gray, Peter Garrett, Craig Emerson, Stephen Smith, Robert McClelland, Chris Bowen, Kevin Rudd, Tony Burke, Mike Kelly, David Bradbury, and Mark Dreyfus.

Only 4 of the losses are within 2 per cent of the swing.

These results assume that Anthony Albanese and Martin Ferguson hold off challenges from the Greens. Also the Victorian redistribution has not been factored in, Jenny Macklin would be at risk if it were.

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Corangamite (VIC) CHEESEMAN ALP 0.40%
Greenway (NSW) ROWLAND ALP 0.90%
La Trobe Vic SMYTH ALP 0.90%
Robertson (NSW) O’NEILL ALP 1.00%
Lindsay (NSW) BRADBURY ALP 1.10%
Moreton (QLD) PERRETT ALP 1.10%
Banks (NSW) MELHAM ALP 1.50%
Deakin (VIC) SYMON ALP 2.40%
Petrie (QLD) D’ATH ALP 2.50%
Reid (NSW) MURPHY ALP 2.70%
Lilley (QLD) SWAN ALP 3.20%
Brand (WA) GRAY ALP 3.30%
Capricornia (QLD) LIVERMORE ALP 3.70%
Lingiari (NT) SNOWDON ALP 3.80%
Blair (QLD) NEUMANN ALP 4.20%
Eden-Monaro (NSW) KELLY ALP 4.20%
Grayndler (NSW) ALBANESE ALP 4.20% v Greens
Page (NSW) SAFFIN ALP 4.20%
Parramatta (NSW) OWENS ALP 4.40%
Dobell (NSW) THOMSON ALP 5.10%
Kingsford Smitih (NSW) GARRETT ALP 5.20%
McEwen (VIC) (Gain) MITCHELL ALP 5.30%
Rankin (QLD) EMERSON ALP 5.40%
Fremantle (WA) PARKE ALP 5.70%
Hindmarsh (SA) GEORGANAS ALP 5.70%
Oxley (QLD) RIPOLL ALP 5.80%
Perth (WA) SMITH ALP 5.90%
Chisholm (VIC) BURKE ALP 6.10%
Bass (TAS) LYONS ALP 6.70%
Werriwa (NSW) FERGUSON ALP 6.80%
Barton (NSW) McCLELLAND ALP 6.90%
Richmond (NSW) ELLIOT ALP 7.00%
Braddon (TAS) SIDEBOTTOM ALP 7.50%
Melbourne Ports (VIC) DANBY ALP 7.60%
Adelaide (SA) ELLIS ALP 7.70%
McMahon (NSW) BOWEN ALP 7.80%
Batman (VIC) FERGUSON ALP 7.90% v Greens
Bruce (VIC) GRIFFIN ALP 8.10%
Griffith (QLD) RUDD ALP 8.50%
Fowler (NSW) HAYES ALP 8.80%
Watson (NSW) BURKE ALP 9.10%
Canberra (ACT) BRODTMANN ALP 9.20%
Bendigo (VIC) GIBBONS ALP 9.50%
Franklin (TAS) COLLINS ALP 10.80%
Isaacs (VIC) DREYFUS ALP 11.00% 11.12 swing
Jagajaga (VIC) MACKLIN ALP 11.50%
Ballarat (VIC) KING ALP 11.70%
Wakefield (SA) CHAMPION ALP 12.00%
Throsby (NSW) JONES ALP 12.10%
Blaxland (NSW) CLARE ALP 12.20%
Makin (SA) ZAPPIA ALP 12.20%
Chifley (NSW) HUSIC ALP 12.30%
Lyons (TAS) ADAMS ALP 12.30%
Hunter (NSW) FITZGIBBON ALP 12.50%
Newcastle (NSW) GRIERSON ALP 12.50%
Charlton (NSW) COMBET ALP 12.70%
Shortland (NSW) HALL ALP 12.90%
Cunningham (NSW) BIRD ALP 13.20%
Holt (VIC) BYRNE ALP 13.20%
Hotham (VIC) CREAN ALP 13.50%
Kingston (SA) RISHWORTH ALP 13.90%
Corio (VIC) MARLES ALP 14.20%
Fraser (ACT) LEIGH ALP 14.20%
Maribyrnong (VIC) SHORTEN ALP 16.90%
Sydney (NSW) PLIBERSEK ALP 17.10%
Calwell (VIC) VAMVAKINOU ALP 19.70%
Port Adelaide (SA) BUTLER ALP 20.00%
Gorton (VIC) O’CONNOR ALP 22.20%
Lalor (VIC) GILLARD ALP 22.20%
Scullin (VIC) JENKINS ALP 22.30%
Wills (VIC) THOMSON ALP 22.60%
Gellibrand (VIC) ROXON ALP 23.90%
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3 Responses to Guest post: This election will be about who can you trust

  1. On your Marx says:

    it would be devastating if the election was soon even perhaps this year but it ain’t.

    When it occurs the budget will be well into surplus and the ETS ( note not carbon tax) will be seen something that was vastly overblown.

    Even though that will dent the Oppostion’s credilbilty given this Government’s remarkable inability to sell anything they could well be still under water.

    • Ricardo says:

      Sure, they have time — if they can hold it together. I just thought this was interesting as it shows why they are getting nervous about the polling.

      My view is that they made a monumental error in knifing Rudd. He was an outstanding campaigner, and I think would have come back and won handsomely in 2010.

      Sent from my iPad

  2. On your Marx says:

    When knifed Rudd would have still won according to the polls.
    It seems to me no-one in the ALP has learned from that failure.
    They keep on making the same mistakes which always come from ‘strategists’ who are clearly clueless.

    People think things are very bad despite a very good economy, low household stress etc.
    how long this disconnect continues it seems to me is the clue to whether the ALP can come back or not.

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