Looking through old IMF article IV consults, I re-read the concluding statement from their Kiwi mission (April 2012).
It names four key external risks:
1/ Lower export demand (check, both Australia and China have under-shot)
2/ Worsened terms of trade (check, the milk price has been mooving)
3/ Increased cost of external funding (yep … See CDS)
4/ Roll-over risk in wholesale funding markets (not yet an issue)
And the first line of defence is a rate cut:
The authorities have policy space to respond to near-term shocks, with monetary policy serving as the first line of defense. The RBNZ has the scope to lower interest rates and loosen monetary conditions to help buffer against a downside scenario