FOMC

Fed goes to 2015 in Sep

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The WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath reports that the September FOMC meeting projections will go out to 2015 following their September meeting.

This is the first year that the Fed has published quarterly forecasts, so it was unclear when they would roll out to 2015. In 2011 forecasts were published following the April, June and November meetings, with the roll to 2014 in November.

They might have selected either September or December – the extension of the forecast horizon to 2015 in September provides context for extending the low rate pledge out to 2015 at that meeting.

The Federal Reserve will include economic and interest-rate projections for 2015 when it releases its updated forecasts following its policy meeting next week.
…
The 2015 forecast could be an important part of the Fed’s discussion at its Sept. 12-13 meeting. The Fed has been making assurances since the beginning of the year that it expects to keep short-term interest rates near zero through 2014. It could decide at the next meeting to extend this guidance to 2015 or beyond. The updated economic forecasts could play a role in shaping that decision.

We tipped 25bps until 2014 in November 2010; and extended to 2015 in September 2011 … I am toying with rolling it out to 2016.

3 comments

  1. It all seems like a bit of a joke. Why not just embark on QE now if inflation/employment growth is below target rather than saying what they will or won’t do in 2-3 years based on an expectation that they won’t hit their targets before then??

    1. I think they will do QE and guidance. They think the two together are more potent. There is an FRBNY paper to this effect someplace – i will link to it if i find it.

  2. “Canada’s currency will fall 3.3 percent to C$1.27 to the U.S. dollar by July, from C$1.2298 on April 3, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 40 economists and analysts.” Whether this prediction actually obtains depends primarily on what, if anything, Mark Carney and his colleagues at the Central Bank of Canada decide at their next meeting, scheduled for April 23.

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