Mark the graph has a very nice collection of charts on the tax take from the Q2 national accounts.
By my figuring they are headed for a ~10bn deficit in 2012-13, and a similar deficit in 2013-14 — as they have pushed so much spending forward that they need strong revenue growth to make that year balance.
I thought of the above cartoon when i saw this story on Reuters. Our “World’s Greatest Treasurer” remains committed to his surplus:
While we have budgeted for a decline in our terms of trade, commodity spot prices have fallen more than we anticipated in May. And obviously it would be a further hit to our budget bottom line if these lower prices were sustained,” Swan said.
That will make our budget task harder. But we are absolutely commited to delivering a surplus in 2012-13.