Election update: Coalition to take 98 seats

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The incomparable mark the ballot (also famous as mark the graph) has posted an update of the polls (aimed at predicting the outcome of the September 2013 Federal Election).


Aggregating across the various political polls, his model suggests that the ALP will earn ~44.3% of the two party preferred vote.


This is expected to translate into about 98 seats for the coalition, and 49 seats for the ALP (and 3 ‘other’).


Everything is measured with error, but even taking into account the error surrounding these point estimates, the ALP seems extremely unlikely to retain government.


  1. That’s for certain. It seems increasingly likely to me that Australia is going to dish out some rough justice to the ALP. The Abbott alternative is far from appealing, but I think the people have decided that the ALP needs to be punished and taught a lesson. I had thought there would be a significant narrowing, leading to a merely solid Coalition victory rather than a bloodbath. However, I now think that the desire to teach Gillard and co a lesson is just too strong.

    1. Mark posts all the time – more than i cross post – if you want to keep up to date, keen an eye on his blog.

      As for politics, i think the NDIS is good policy, but the fact it comes with a tax is playing into coalition hands. They just look bad with money. You can see what they are trying – to play the invest for the future card – but it is too late.

      The prior money churning now looks like egregious waste: these NDIS type policies are true ALP values; carbon tax over-compensation is just trash.

      1. I think Gillard has been somewhat tied to the weight that has sunk her. She never intended to do the ETS and mining tax but circumstances changed and well here we are. Abbott has been very good at making her look bad and well the ALP hasn’t helped itself either.
        All in all I think on the big things there is very little difference between the parties. Both sides when in government are basically the same, never mind the bs that comes out of the libs mouths in respect to the GFC and other big ticket items…they would have done exactly the same. Why? because they are politicians that know very little about how things actually work and therefore rely on advice. Advice which would have been the same regardless of the party in power.
        That said I’m looking forward to the double talking and back peddling when the Libs get into power. Blood oath to repeal the carbon tax, in an environment with low revenue…should be interesting.

        1. I agree with this – the uncomfortable fact is that it doesn’t matter who is in power, global policy ‘fashions’ shape policy. Look at the 1980s micro reform – it was lefties in Aus and NZ and righties in the US and UK. all did basically the same thing — with more or less bluster.

          1. In a democracy, the govt represents people. I laugh when I hear people complaining “we have bad politicians, the govt is bad” and that happens all the times in every country. But politicians are are what we are, they represent society and do what we want. We vote them in. Yes, it is nice to be able to blame someone else for mistakes, but reality is that they are just like us!

          2. …. and I often do laugh at myself, as I think all politicians are pretty bad! :)

  2. if you want a reason why the government will lose then look no further than the fact from essential that ONLY 1/3 of people realise interest rates are now lower than when the ALP first came to government.

    Most but not all of their policy is fine. however they couldn’t sell a beer on a hot day!

    Mark the graph needs to come back. Mark the ballot is fantastic

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