Tag Archives: CPI

Q1’19 CPI, the RBA and May

The case for the RBA to cut their cash rate at their 7 May meeting has been beaten up by the RBA’s own views on the GDP data, but I still think that the data makes a decent case for … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, CPI, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged | 4 Comments

CPI playbook

Today we have Australian Q2 CPI. My best guess is that Q2 headline CPI will be around 0.25%qoq, which will take headline inflation down to 2.25%yoy (which is below 2%yoy once the carbon tax is taken out). The key core … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , | 11 Comments

Q1 2013 Aus CPI in pictures

Looking at the detail of Q1’13 CPI, inflation does look low — but CPI is very lagged to the cycle, so I’m not convinced it will make the RBA cut in May (though it lowers the bar for an easing); … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics | Tagged | 17 Comments

Q1 CPI – not low enough for a May cut

With Q1’13 CPI much lower than anticapited the obvious question is if the RBA will respond by cutting rates in May. It it hard to say for sure, but i think the chance of a cut in May is no … Continue reading

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Guessing at Q1’13 Australian CPI

[note this is the third in a series looking at the indicators for Q1’13 Australian CPI: we have also looked at the business surveys, and NZ CPI] Forecasting CPI is a tough gig … however, due to the fact that … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged | 26 Comments

What can we learn from NZ CPI?

Around this time of each quarter, I keenly anticipate the release of the NZ CPI data. Over time, experience has shown that it’s a reasonable guide to Australia CPI. As best as I can tell, the Q1 NZ CPI data … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, NZD | Tagged | 4 Comments

Q4’12 Australian CPI — Low enough for a cut

The Q4’12 inflation data was a little lower than most expected, with the core ~0.55%qq (mkt median was ~0.7%qq). This is high enough to make it unclear if the RBA will cut in Feb, but low enough to make it … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, RBA | Tagged | 1 Comment