Tag Archives: employment

When +50k is -5k (maybe)

Getting right to the point,  my view is that the Feb 2014 jobs report is bunkum.  The survey is not designed to measure the number of jobs, and if you use a household survey for this purpose you are going … Continue reading

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Aussie labour market plumbs new lows (Jan’14 report)

The Jan 2014 labour market report was BAD. The unemployment rate rose to 6% — exceeding the GFC peak — as the ranks of unemployed women rose (female employment had been relatively stable).

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Where did all the men go? (Oct Jobs report)

There are some interesting stories in the October employment data. The macro news isn’t great, but the good(ish) news is that the unemployment rate remained basically steady at 5.7% (in unrounded terms is was +0.1).

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The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (Sep jobs edition)

These three charts summarise the state of the labour market — and the September employment report. The good news is that the trend in hours worked is firm — in typical cycles hours pick up first, then job ads, and … Continue reading

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The labour market ossifies (May gross flows)

The May gross flows data suggests an ossifying labour market: if you have a job, you are more likely to keep it, but if you do not have a job, it’s harder to re-enter employment.

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Gross flows in the April jobs report

When it comes to the labour market survey, I mostly focus on the rates: the unemployment rate (see here for my wrap), and the gross flows rates (the probabilities of transitioning from one labour market state to another). The gross … Continue reading

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April jobs? … best in a while

The April employment report has led the the predictable ‘we was robbed’ response from many of those who got the May meeting wrong. I got the April RBA meeting wrong too, but you won’t read that assessment below. Rather, i … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, Uncategorized | Tagged | 17 Comments

Gross flows and long term unemployment

The ABS yesterday released the first part of the quarterly labour force detail (this was the bit showing the characteristics of the unemployed, including the duration of unemployment). I like the ratios in these reports (as usual — as i … Continue reading

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March jobs report — little changed

The monthly labour market report has a way of making fools of people — but in the last two months i think it’s mostly made a fool of itself. At the margin, it has made me think that the RBA … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy | Tagged | 22 Comments

about that RBA easing bias …

As is well known, the RBA’s easing bias is conditional upon inflation. For a few months now, the RBA has said that the inflation outlook is sufficiently low that there is scope to stoke demand with rate cuts should it … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy | Tagged , | 6 Comments