Tag Archives: Unemployment

When +50k is -5k (maybe)

Getting right to the point,  my view is that the Feb 2014 jobs report is bunkum.  The survey is not designed to measure the number of jobs, and if you use a household survey for this purpose you are going … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics | Tagged , | 13 Comments

Aussie labour market plumbs new lows (Jan’14 report)

The Jan 2014 labour market report was BAD. The unemployment rate rose to 6% — exceeding the GFC peak — as the ranks of unemployed women rose (female employment had been relatively stable).

Posted in AUD, economics, RBA | Tagged , | 13 Comments

Under-utilisation rate back in 2009/10 range

In the comments, there are often comments to the effect that the labour under-utilisation rate is a better indicator of labour market slack than the unemployment rate. Given this, I thought this chart a useful addition to the broader jobs … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , | 9 Comments

May labour market: trend slackening

The May labour market report was a little better than I had expected (and the market also): the unemployment rate rounded down to 5.5% (it fell 3bps to 5.53%). Total employment was stable (+1.1k), so it follows that the unemployment … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Good news about the Aus labour market

I could fairly be accused of a little recent pessimism about the outlook for the Australian economy. Today, I want to point to a reason things might be better than I expect: the labour market is a better functioning market than … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, Australian Politics, economics | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Six ways to Okun

Following on from my casual survey of the relationship between various measures of demand and inflation, I thought it appropriate to complete the picture with a look at some Okun relationships (the ‘relationship’ between changes in demand and changes in … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Commodities, job Vacancies and the AUD

I have been fairly strident about the need for lower rates — ignoring some of the commentators that are generally well informed with regard to what the RBA is thinking. This may appear to be pig-headed hubris, as I’ve not … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, RBA | Tagged , | 16 Comments

The US unemployment disaster

The long term employment data tells a chilling tale of a decade already lost in the USA. There is a fair argument that the economy has never recovered from the bust of the dot.com bubble – which challenges my prior … Continue reading

Posted in economics, USD | Tagged | 21 Comments