I missed the mark with regard to Gov Stevens’ speech yesterday, at least as far as the market was concerned.
Following the Q2 CPI report, the market is pricing the August meeting at ~80%. There are decent reasons for this:
There was some confusion about core CPI yesterday, thanks to the divergence between trimmed mean CPI & weighted median CPI
The Q2 CPI result came in around where i was expecting, with headline CPI a little higher (it was 0.4%q/q
Today we have Australian Q2 CPI. My best guess is that Q2 headline CPI will be around 0.25%qoq, which will
The June employment report has nicely set up the RBA to cut rates at their August meeting, so long as
The AFR’s star RBA watcher, Alan Mitchell says that the RBA doesn’t need to cut rates at their July meeting.
The May gross flows data suggests an ossifying labour market: if you have a job, you are more likely to
In the comments, there are often comments to the effect that the labour under-utilisation rate is a better indicator of
The May labour market report was a little better than I had expected (and the market also): the unemployment rate
I could fairly be accused of a little recent pessimism about the outlook for the Australian economy. Today, I want to
The Australian reports that WA Premier Colin Barnett just called the end of the Iron Ore boom — fresh off