monetary policy – Page 5 – ricardian ambivalence

FED can still sep-taper

Last night’s price action spoke to the virtues of sleeping deeply and turning off your phone. First, better than expected

I missed the mark with regard to Gov Stevens’ speech yesterday, at least as far as the market was concerned.

Following the Q2 CPI report, the market is pricing the August meeting at ~80%. There are decent reasons for this:

The typically well informed (especially on things Democratic) Ezra Klein reports that Summers is now the leading contender to replace

The QE outlook has started to dim, as Lawrence Summers firms as favourite to replace Bernanke next year. This seems

There was some confusion about core CPI yesterday, thanks to the divergence between trimmed mean CPI & weighted median CPI

The Q2 CPI result came in around where i was expecting, with headline CPI a little higher (it was 0.4%q/q

Today we have Australian Q2 CPI. My best guess is that Q2 headline CPI will be around 0.25%qoq, which will

The June employment report has nicely set up the RBA to cut rates at their August meeting, so long as

The BIS has just published a paper which traces the main path through which QE works to stimulate the economy.

The AFR’s star RBA watcher, Alan Mitchell says that the RBA doesn’t need to cut rates at their July meeting.

The WSJ’s inimitable Jon Hilsenrath has just published a note that emphasises that the market reaction to Bernanke’s tapering comments