Tag Archives: Inflation

enough (PCE) inflation to taper?

We’re now on the run into the September FOMC meeting. The key report will be this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report — as the labour market is the best leading indicator of inflation — however there’s already been a few awkward … Continue reading

Posted in economics, FOMC, monetary policy, USD | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

Trimming is better (CPI edition)

There was some confusion about core CPI yesterday, thanks to the divergence between trimmed mean CPI & weighted median CPI . This is not surprising as they are fairly esoteric concepts. The bottom line is that the trimmed mean is … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy | Tagged , , | 15 Comments

Q2 CPI: low enough for an August cut

The Q2 CPI result came in around where i was expecting, with headline CPI a little higher (it was 0.4%q/q v. my 0.25%q/q) and trimmed mean CPI at my (and the median economist’s) forecast of 0.5%q/q.  There was something of … Continue reading

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Inflation forecasting: an n-GDP thing …

The post Q1 GDP recession debate has been both fun and informative (see my first and second posts, and Mark’s wonderful WA post), but what i really care about is monetary policy.  With that in mind, i thought it useful to focus … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

Don’t worry about AUD sparking inflation

Despite the RBA’s efforts to kill the beast in the June RBA meeting minutes (see this post), the “lower AUD means the RBA should not cut” beast is stirring. This time it’s in my mate Chris Joye’s weekend AFR column … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , | 9 Comments

US inflation plunge continues

Amidst all the talk about US economic strength, and Fed tapering, there has been little focus on the slow hissing sound coming from measures of US inflation. The best measure of inflation (in terms of balancing signal and noise) is … Continue reading

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Don’t worry (much) about non-tradable CPI

One of the biggest traps in Australian economics over the past decade has been worrying about non-tradable inflation. I fell into this trap myself prior to the May 2013 RBA meeting — for reasons which I hope will be apparent … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, FX | Tagged , | 26 Comments

US inflation: too low for Fed tightening

Following the Hilsenrath article on tapering, there has been a lot of talk about the possibility that the Fed’s next move is not only up — but soon. Some influential voices, such as the SF Fed’s Williams, have put forward … Continue reading

Posted in economics, FOMC, monetary policy | Tagged , | 7 Comments

Fed sharpens their easing bias

The May FOMC statement contained only a few tweaks. The main change was in the policy section, where the FOMC moved to the following expression: The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain … Continue reading

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Is money easy? (low CPI edition)

THe FOMC concludes a two-day meeting on 1 May (NY time).  There is, however, little chance that the FOMC will take a further step toward tapering (the minutes to their last meeting showed a movement in this direction). Yes, there … Continue reading

Posted in monetary policy, USD | Tagged | 16 Comments