Lowe’s watershed speech
The 2021 Anika speech was used to deliver three key messages to the market: 1/ The outlook for QE is further tapering. 2/ They need CPI near 2.5% before hiking. 3/ The market is wrong in pricing rate hikes in 2022 & 2023.
Tag: Inflation
Clarida: King of the Doves?
Vice Fed Chair Clarida gave a very interesting speech entitled Sustaining Maximum Employment and Price Stability on 30 May. It
enough (PCE) inflation to taper?
We’re now on the run into the September FOMC meeting. The key report will be this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report
Trimming is better (CPI edition)
There was some confusion about core CPI yesterday, thanks to the divergence between trimmed mean CPI & weighted median CPI
Q2 CPI: low enough for an August cut
The Q2 CPI result came in around where i was expecting, with headline CPI a little higher (it was 0.4%q/q
Inflation forecasting: an n-GDP thing …
The post Q1 GDP recession debate has been both fun and informative (see my first and second posts, and Mark’s
Don’t worry about AUD sparking inflation
Despite the RBA’s efforts to kill the beast in the June RBA meeting minutes (see this post), the “lower AUD
US inflation plunge continues
Amidst all the talk about US economic strength, and Fed tapering, there has been little focus on the slow hissing
Don’t worry (much) about non-tradable CPI
One of the biggest traps in Australian economics over the past decade has been worrying about non-tradable inflation. I fell
US inflation: too low for Fed tightening
Following the Hilsenrath article on tapering, there has been a lot of talk about the possibility that the Fed’s next
Fed sharpens their easing bias
The May FOMC statement contained only a few tweaks. The main change was in the policy section, where the FOMC
Is money easy? (low CPI edition)
THe FOMC concludes a two-day meeting on 1 May (NY time). There is, however, little chance that the FOMC will
ricardian ambivalence 