March 2019 – ricardian ambivalence

Underwater mortgages

The fact that Australian house prices are now back to 2016 levels (or below in some areas) means that there

My read of recent RBA communication, particularly RBA Ellis’s speech on the household sector earlier this week, is that the

RBA Assistant Gov (Economic) Luci Ellis this morning gave a very careful speech on the household sector. In particular, it

The decline of the unemployment rate to 4.9% in February caused the market to substantially reduce the implied probability of

The minutes to the RBA’s March board meeting seem designed to put the market on notice for a rate cut

The Sumner stuff on per-capita measures of nominal income growth made me wonder if it made more sense to think

I think the RBA will — and should — cut their cash rate 25bps to 1.25% at their 7 May

I was a little thrilled when I saw a link to my blog from a Scott Sumner post on econlib

I think that the increased focus on NGDP these days is good. Firms and households live in a nominal world,

Today’s speech by RBA Gov Lowe said that they were puzzling about the concurrent GDP slowdown and strength in the

The biggest problem in Aussie macro is weak household cash flow. Today’s Aussie Business Indicators report suggest that things are getting

Keynes famously compared investing to betting on the outcome of a beauty pageant. With the RBA providing a little more