Tag Archives: AUD

Don’t give up on a May RBA cut

The decline of the unemployment rate to 4.9% in February caused the market to substantially reduce the implied probability of a rate cut in May. This is understandable, but i think it’s wrong. What’s wrong with this is that the … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 7 Comments

Another view on the credit crunch

The Sumner stuff on per-capita measures of nominal income growth made me wonder if it made more sense to think about the flow of finance in a per-capita sense. I think it does. With equivalent economic and credit conditions, you’d … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Aussie GDP boom revised away

The annual revisions to GDP, and a weak 0.3%qoq in Q3 , mean that the GDP boom of H1’18 has been revised away.  The chart below shows what we thought was true (the red line) v. the new information (black … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

RBA sets up for a cut …

The RBA has set things up to resume the easing cycle that began in 2011 (I never believed in the whole ‘neutral’ thing … see here).  My current view is that the RBA will cut by 50bps in 2015, taking their policy rate … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, monetary policy, RBA | Tagged , | 56 Comments

Trimming is better (CPI edition)

There was some confusion about core CPI yesterday, thanks to the divergence between trimmed mean CPI & weighted median CPI . This is not surprising as they are fairly esoteric concepts. The bottom line is that the trimmed mean is … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, monetary policy | Tagged , , | 15 Comments

two cheers for a strong AUD

The reporting of recent AUD strength is getting a little unbalanced. See here for an example. This tone really gets to me. Movements in the foreign exchange value of the AUD (like movements in any relative price) create winners and … Continue reading

Posted in AUD | Tagged | 32 Comments