Tag Archives: debt

Another view on the credit crunch

The Sumner stuff on per-capita measures of nominal income growth made me wonder if it made more sense to think about the flow of finance in a per-capita sense. I think it does. With equivalent economic and credit conditions, you’d … Continue reading

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How QE works …

The BIS has just published a paper which traces the main path through which QE works to stimulate the economy.  It shows how the size and average maturity of government debt in private hands influences long-term yields, and how the … Continue reading

Posted in economics, FOMC, monetary policy | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Aus $300bn debt ceiling is breached in 2015

There was a bit of confusion about the path of debt subject to the legislative ceiling of AUD300bn  following the publication of the 2013-14 budget. This has now been settled, with the Australian Treasury supplying the facts to Senate Estimates: … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, Australian Politics, economics | Tagged | 50 Comments

Australia’s PBO gets a C for structural deficit

The other part of the Treasury Structural budget estimates working paper is the PBO study — both were published on 22 May.

Posted in AUD, economics | Tagged , | 5 Comments

Australian deficit — it’s all structural!

The Australian Treasury has released new structural budget deficit estimates, updating my favourite bulletin article (MacDonald &c.) of the last few years.

Posted in AUD, economics | Tagged , | 38 Comments

AU and NZ budgets (it’s the terms of trade!)

The proximate release of the Australian and New Zealand Budgets has prompted some comparisons between the two (see this odd news story). To an extent, these comparisons are fair — both nations are small open economies that have been subject … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics, FX, NZD | Tagged , | 19 Comments

Budget 2013-14: terms of trade forecasts are imprudent

A key reason for the AUD60bn increase in deficits in the 2013-14 budget (relative to the 2012-13 MYEFO) was the nominal GDP downgrade (see here for more on the 2013-14 budget). This nominal weakness is mostly due to the predictable … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics | Tagged , | 32 Comments

Australian Budget 2013-14: it’s mostly structural

The 2013-14 budget has been released, and it shows the (fairly) predictable consequences of the decline in the terms of trade. Gone are the surpluses, and in their place we have ~60bn more of deficits. That’s a lot of extra … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Deficit 19.4bn for 2012-13

Budget forecast for 2012-13 deficit prints at 19.4bn in 2013-14 budget — only 600m from my most recent forecast! Deficit projections are: 12/13 :: -19.4bn 13/14 :: -18.0bn 14/15 :: -10.9bn 15/16 :: +0.8bn 16/17 :: +6.6bn

Posted in AUD, economics | Tagged | 3 Comments

Six (+1) fiscal charts: Australia v. the AAAs

Following on from yesterday’s (somewhat contentious) post, I am going to compare Australia with eight other nations that are rated AAA-stable by S&P (I used this list). Once again, I use the 2012 data from the IMF’s fiscal monitor — … Continue reading

Posted in AUD, economics | Tagged , | 28 Comments